Changes in the net primary production of ecosystems across Western Europe from 2015 to 2022 in response to historic drought events

Abstract

Background Ecosystem models are valuable tools to make climate-related assessments of change when ground-based measurements of water and carbon fluxes are not adequately detailed to realistically capture geographic variability. The Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) is one such model based on satellite observations of monthly vegetation cover to estimate net primary production (NPP) of terrestrial ecosystems. Results CASA model predictions from 2015 to 2022 for Western Europe revealed several notable high and low periods in growing season NPP totals in most countries of the region. For the total land coverage of France, Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain, 2018 was the year with the highest terrestrial plant growth, whereas 2017 and 2019 were the years with the highest summed NPP across the UK, Germany, and Croatia. For most of Western Europe, 2022 was the year predicted with the lowest summed plant growth. Annual precipitation in most countries of Western Europe gradually declined from a high average rate in 2018 to a low average precipitation level in 2022. Conclusions The CASA model predicted decreased growing season NPP of between − 25 and − 60% across all of Spain, southern France, and northern Italy from 2021 to 2022, and much of that plant production loss was detected in the important cropland regions of these nations.