Changes in the Potential Distribution of Vanilla planifolia Andrews under Different Climate Change Projections in Mexico

Abstract

Vanilla planifolia is the most widely cultivated species for obtaining natural vanilla. In Mexico, vanilla production has decreased due to negative effects of climate change. We evaluate the current, potential, and future of vanilla cultivation areas in Mexico using bioclimatic models with distinct climate change scenarios (intermediate emissions, temperature rise of 1.1 to 2.6 °C, and high emissions from 2.6 to 4.8 °C, to 2050 and 2070), in order to understand the magnitude of future distribution changes and propose future management strategies. We found that the areas with greatest potential for establishment of V. planifolia are northern Veracruz state bordering the state of Puebla (the Totonacapan region) and northeast Oaxaca state. In the models, the most relevant environmental variable were mean temperature and precipitation of the driest quarter. The average projections for 2050 and 2070 show a progressive reduction in the potential area for the species (−1.6 and −17.3%). However, the Totonacapan region maintains the largest ideal cultivation area, while that of northeast Oaxaca is reduced by 50%. These results show the need to redesign the strategies of agricultural production of vanilla, through sustainable and climate-smart agricultural production strategies as well as a national strategy for conservation of genetic diversity.

Aplikasi Teknologi Irigasi Tetes Pada Kegiatan Budidaya Tanaman Vanili Di Rumah Kaca Dusun Sinogo, Pagerharjo, Samigaluh, Kulon Progo, Yogyakarta

“…Produksi vanili mengalami penurunan akibat dampak negatif perubahan iklim. Oleh karena itu perlu untuk mendesain ulang strategi budidaya vanili, melalui sistem produksi pertanian yang berkelanjutan dan pertanian cerdas dengan memodifikasi iklim serta strategi nasional untuk konservasi keanekaragaman genetik (Armenta-Montero et al, 2022).…”

Prospects in Vanilla (Vanilla planifolia Andrews) production in Mexico in relation to temperature fluctuations

“…The threat of climate change has caused concern in recent years, as essential climatic factors for crop growth such as precipitation and temperature will be severely affected, and thus they will impact agricultural production (Armenta-Montero et al, 2022;Hatfield and Prueger, 2015). Although the effects of climate change on crop production may vary from one region to another, it is expected that the predicted changes will have far-reaching impacts, especially in countries with tropical zones (Heino et al, 2019).…”

“…Vanilla (Vanilla planifolia Andrews) is an orchid of economic interest because its fruits are highly valued in the food and aromatic industry (Hernández-Hernández, 2018a), in addition to medicinal properties (Teoh, 2019). Despite its economic importance, this species is classified as "subject to special protection" (SEMARNAT, 2010), and it is also protected worldwide by the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Flora and Fauna, and the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List (Armenta-Montero et al, 2022;IUCN, 2022). Due to the plants have been propagated asexually, genetic erosion has occurred, and the cultivation has become vulnerable to several scenarios, including climate change (Hernández-Hernández, 2018b).…”

“…There is a relationship between the increase in temperature during flowering season and a subsequent loss of fruit-forming capacity, causing significant economic losses (Hernández-Hernández and Lubinsky, 2011). Furthermore, it should be considered that the traditional way of cultivating it in areas where temperatures have risen will not be able to meet the future needs of this crop (Armenta-Montero et al, 2022;Barreda-Castillo et al, 2023a).…”

Uncovering haplotype diversity in cultivated Mexican vanilla species

“…Due to the absence of natural genetic recombination through manual pollination and clonal vegetative propagation from a single origin (Lubinsky et al, 2008a), the genetic diversity of globally cultivated vanilla has become severely constrained (Schlüter et al, 2007; Soto Arenas and Dressler, 2010; Hu et al, 2019). Therefore, its capacity to cope with changing environmental conditions is consequently limited (Armenta‐Montero et al, 2022). Large‐scale loss of vanilla plants, due to fungal outbreaks associated with a changing climate, have caused significant losses over the past decade (Pinaria et al, 2010).…”