Changes of major terrestrial ecosystems in China since 1960

Tian, Yun; Fan, Ze Meng; Liu, Ji Yuan

doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2005.03.001

Cited by 70 publications

(47 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…The RCP26, in contrast, is the representative of lowest scenarios in climate change, which requires stringent climate policies to limit global mean temperature within 2.0°C. For greenhouse gas emission, RCP26 has a peak around 2050, followed by a modest decline by the end of After comparatively analyzing relative interpolation methods, the mean annual biotemperature, average total annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration ratio with 1 km resolution during all the four periods from 1981 to 2010, 2011 to 2040, 2041 to 2070, and 2071 to 2100 were respectively simulated by a high accuracy and speed method of surfacing modeling (HASM), which is described in detail by Yue (2010).…”

Section: Datasetsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scenarios of land cover in Karst area of Southwestern China

Fan

Yue

et al. 2015

Environ Earth Sci

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The method of surface modeling of land cover scenarios (SMLCS) has been improved to simulate the scenarios of land cover in the karst areas of southwestern China. On the basis of the observation monthly climatic data collected from 782 weather stations of China during the period from 1981 to 2010, the climatic scenarios data of RCP26, RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios released by CMIP5, and the land cover current data of China in 2010, the land cover scenarios of southwestern China were respectively simulated. The average total accuracy and Kappa index of SMLCS are 90.25 and 87.96 %, respectively. The results show that there would be a very apparent similar variety on the spatial distribution pattern of land cover in the karst areas of southwestern China under all the three scenarios during the period from 2010 to 2100, but there would have the different change rate. In general, the change rate of land cover type under RCP85 scenario would be the fastest, then under RCP45 scenario, and under RCP26 would be the slowest. From 2010 to 2100, deciduous coniferous forest, deciduous broadleaf forest, grassland, cropland, nival area, and desert and bare rock would have a gradual decrease trend, while evergreen coniferous forest, evergreen broadleaf forests, mixed forest, scrublands, wetlands, construction built-up land, and water bodies body would gradually increase in karst areas of southwestern China, in which wetland would have the fastest increase rate (5.28 % per decade on average), and desert and bare rock would decrease with the fastest rate (2.34 % per decade on average).Keywords Surface modeling of land cover scenarios (SMLCS) Á Land cover Á Scenarios Á Karst areas of Southwestern China

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Section: Datasetsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scenarios of land cover in Karst area of Southwestern China

Fan

Yue

et al. 2015

Environ Earth Sci

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“…A model dealing with soil, quality of the water, superficial material and aquifer properties was constructed to identify all areas of groundwater vulnerable to nitrate pollution by a combination with GIS (Lake et al, 2003). Methods for surface modeling were used to simulate change trend and scenarios of major terrestrial ecosystems (Yue et al, 2005(Yue et al, , 2006. It was suggested that the development of spatially explicit disturbance history information from historic accounts might enable future research to develop more precise quantitative disturbance history inputs at appropriate resolutions for ecosystem process models (McNeil et al, 2006).…”

Section: Earth Surface Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Progress in global ecological modelling

Yue

Jørgensen

Larocque

2011

Ecological Modelling

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“…The three HadCM3 climatic scenarios have been downscaled in zonal model of spatial climate change in China (Yue et al, 2005a). The downscaled results show that temperature, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration ratio would all increase in future 100 years.…”

Section: Hadcm3 Climatic Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…After comparatively analyzing relative interpolation methods, high accuracy surface modeling (HASM) was applied to create annual mean bio-temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration ratio surfaces during the period from 1971 to 2000 on an average (Yue et al, 2004a;Yue and Du, 2005). Digital elevation model of China was combined with the Holdridge Life Zone (HLZ) model on the basis of simulating relationships between temperature and elevation in different regions of China (Yue et al, 2005a). HLZ ecosystem classification was created by operating the HLZ model on the created surfaces.…”

Section: Hlz Classificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Simulation results (Fig. 1), which are based on observation data of 735 meteorological stations scattered over China during the period from 1971 to 2000 and lapse rate of temperature in different regions of China (Yue et al, 2005a), show that both temperature and precipitation had a continuously increasing trend in the period from 1971 to 2000 on an average. The increase rates of temperature and precipitation were respectively 0.18°C and 12 mm per decade.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Scenarios of land cover in China

Tian

Fan

Liu

2007

Global and Planetary Change

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A method for surface modeling of land cover change (SMLC) is developed on the basis of establishing transition probability matrixes between land cover types and HLZ types. SMLC is used to simulate land cover scenarios of China for the years 2039, 2069 and 2099, for which HLZ scenarios are first simulated in terms of HadCM3 climatic scenarios that are downscaled in zonal model of spatial climate change in China. This paper also analyzes spatial distribution of land cover types, area change and mean center shift of each land cover type, ecotope diversity, and patch connectivity under the land cover scenarios. The results show that cultivated land would decrease and woodland would expand greatly with climatic change, which coincides with consequences expected by implementation of Grain-for-Green policy. Nival area would shrink, and desertification area would expand at a comparatively slow rate in future 100 years. Climate change would generally cause less ecotope diversity and more patch connectivity. Ecosystems in China would have a pattern of beneficial cycle after efficient ecological conservation and restoration. However, if human activities would exceed regulation capacity of ecosystems themselves, the ecosystems in China might deteriorate more seriously.

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Changes of major terrestrial ecosystems in China since 1960

Cited by 70 publications

References 29 publications

Scenarios of land cover in Karst area of Southwestern China

Scenarios of land cover in Karst area of Southwestern China

Progress in global ecological modelling

Scenarios of land cover in China

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