Changing climate in the Gulf of California

Lluch-Cota, Salvador E.; Parés‐Sierra, Alejandro; Magaña, Víctor; Arreguı́n-Sánchez, Francisco; Bazzino, Gastón; Herrera-Cervantes, Hugo; Lluch-Belda, Daniel

doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2010.09.007

Cited by 75 publications

(40 citation statements)

References 83 publications

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“…2b). This coincides with Lluch-Cota et al (2010), who reported that for recent decades no significant sustained long-term trend was evident in any of the time series of physical and ecological variables considered by them. They also explained the apparent contradiction with the century-long analysis by Lluch-Belda et al (2009) that reported a positive long-term warming, by considering only the second part of the century (since the early 1960s), when the global surface air temperature series shows the most dramatic warming, for which no significant trends can be detected and, in fact, the slope is negative.…”

Section: Regions 311 Pacific Regionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Recent trends in sea surface temperature off Mexico

et al. 2013

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RESUMENLos cambios de temperatura promedio del océano a nivel global tienen el potencial de afectar negativamente los sistemas naturales y socioeconómicos actuales; sin embargo, los registros para proyectar las tendencias de cambio a nivel regional son escasos y, en algunos casos, contradictorios. En este estudio se analizan las señales de cambio de la temperatura superficial en mares mexicanos, y se comparan con otras regiones del planeta y con indicadores climáticos clave, tanto del Pacífico Norte como de la franja tropical en el Atlántico y el Pacífico. Se identificaron ocho regiones con diferente exposición a la variabilidad climática: en el Pacífico, la costa occidental de la península de Baja California no muestra una tendencia clara, el Golfo de California exhibe una tendencia modesta de enfriamiento durante los últimos 20 a 25 años, en la parte más oceánica del Pacífico mexicano se nota una tendencia intensa de enfriamiento, la región más tropical muestra una tendencia intensa de calentamiento, y entre ambas regiones se forma una banda de transición sin tendencia; en el Atlántico, la parte noreste del Golfo de México muestra una tendencia de enfriamiento, en tanto que la parte oeste, junto con el Caribe, se han estado calentando por lo menos durante los últimos 30 años. Se analizan las interacciones potenciales de estas tendencias con algunas pesquerías principales y la presencia de ecosistemas costeros sensibles. ABSTRACTChanges in global mean sea surface temperature may have potential negative implications for natural and socioeconomic systems; however, measurements to predict trends in different regions have been limited and sometimes contradictory. In this study, an assessment of sea surface temperature change signals in the seas off Mexico is presented and compared to other regions and the world ocean, and to selected basin scale climatic indices of the North Pacific, the Atlantic and the tropical Pacific variability. We identified eight regions with 538 S. E. Lluch-Cota et al. different exposure to climate variability: In the Pacific, the west coast of the Baja California peninsula with mostly no trend, the Gulf of California with a modest cooling trend during the last 20 to 25 years, the oceanic area with the most intense recent cooling trend, the southern part showing an intense warming trend, and a band of no trend setting the boundary between North-Pacific and tropical-Pacific variability patterns; in the Atlantic, the northeast Gulf of Mexico shows cooling, while the western Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean have been warming for more than three decades. Potential interactions with fisheries and coastal sensitive ecosystems are discussed.

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Section: Regions 311 Pacific Regionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Recent trends in sea surface temperature off Mexico

et al. 2013

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“…ENSO is the most significant inter-annual signal in the region , Lluch-Cota et al 2010. ENSO events occur every two to seven years and are associated with large-scale changes in wind, rainfall, sea surface temperature, and surface pressure.…”

Section: Environmental Variability In Southern Baja California Surmentioning

confidence: 99%

How do small-scale fishers adapt to environmental variability? Lessons from Baja California, Sur, Mexico

Sievanen

2014

Maritime Studies

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Many fisheries stocks and the livelihoods of those who make their living from fishing are in decline, and these declines are exacerbated by uncertainties associated with increased climate variability and change. Social scientists have long documented the importance of mobility and diversification in reducing the risk and uncertainty associated with climate variability, particularly in the context of small-scale fishing. However, it is unclear how these traditional mechanisms are buffering fishers against the varied stressors they currently face, including those associated with environmental variability. This paper examines how fishers on the southern gulf coast of the Mexican state of Baja California Sur perceive and respond to stressors associated with normal environmental variability, how their ability to adapt is spatially distributed, and what threats they perceive to their continued ability to adapt. Understanding the adaptation strategies and everyday vulnerabilities that fishers face can elucidate problems associated with current fisheries management and the underlying factors that cause vulnerability, and also help decision makers, including fishers themselves, develop more effective adaptation strategies in the face of climate change.

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“…Processes and mechanisms of physical variability change at a seasonal scale in the Gulf of California (Robles -Pacheco and Marinone 1987, Thunell et al 1996, Lluch -Cota et al 2010. At the entrance to the Gulf of California, circulation is mainly governed by seasonally reversing winds (Bordoni et al 2004 ), the infl uence of the Pacifi c, and vertical and lateral heat fl uxes (Marinone 2003 ).…”

Section: Seasonal Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate variability and silicoflagellate fluxes in Alfonso Basin (southern Gulf of California)

López¹,

Álvarez-Gómez²,

Durazo³

2012

Botm

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We conducted a study from January 2002 to February 2008 on silicofl agellate fl uxes in Alfonso Basin at the entrance to the Gulf of California. Thirteen taxa were identifi ed in sediment trap samples, with Octactis pulchra as the dominant species. Total fl ux climatology reached a maximum value of 5 × 10 6 skeletons m -2 day -1 in December and then sharply decreased to a minimum value in February (2.3 × 10 3 skeletons m -2 day -1 ) concurrently with the climatological sea surface temperature (SST) minimum. Subsequently, there was a positive trend with a second relative maximum of 1.6 × 10 6 skeletons m -2 day -1 in September coincident with a maximum in climatological SST. During this period, there was a similar increase to 1.4 × 10 6 skeletons m -2 day -1 in May. Factor analysis identifi ed three patterns of variation: " subtropical oceanic, " " subarctic, " and " equatorial El Ni ñ o. " Factors had reasonable correlations with the Pacifi c decadal oscillation (PDO), North Pacifi c Gyre oscillation (NPGO), and El Ni ñ o Modoki indices (r = 0.53, 0.67, and 0.63, respectively). The fi rst and second modes were apparently linked to decadal climatic conditions correlated to PDO and NPGO, as suggested by the silicofl agellate species Dictyocha messanensis forma messanensis and the assemblage of D. epiodon and Distephanus speculum , respectively; the third mode was related to the presence of warm equatorial-oceanic waters identifi ed by D. messanensis forma spinosa , which defi nes El Ni ñ o infl uence. These results demonstrate the importance of the region where there is a confl uence of the low-frequency, high-latitude PDO, NPGO, and high-frequency El Ni ñ o signals.

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Changing climate in the Gulf of California

Cited by 75 publications

References 83 publications

Recent trends in sea surface temperature off Mexico

Recent trends in sea surface temperature off Mexico

How do small-scale fishers adapt to environmental variability? Lessons from Baja California, Sur, Mexico

Climate variability and silicoflagellate fluxes in Alfonso Basin (southern Gulf of California)

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