Changing Trends in the Disease Burden of Cataract and Forecasted Trends in China and Globally from 1990 to 2030

Abstract

To explore the trends in the prevalence and disease burden of cataract from 1990 to 2019, evaluate attributable risk factors, and predict trends over the next decade in China and globally. Methods: Data was obtained from Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. We calculated the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASR) and annual percentage change (EAPC) to show the trends of cataract in China and different regions. We calculated and reported the proportion of disability adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to risk factors by sex in China and different regions. Then, the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) analysis model was also used to predict the prevalence trends from 2020 to 2030 in China and globally. Results:The ASR increased from 867.09 in 1990 to 991.56 in 2019 per 100,000 with an EAPC of 0.88 in China. The agestandardized DALY rate of females was higher than males. DALY rates were correlated to household air pollution from solid fuels, tobacco, high fasting plasma glucose and high body-mass index. The projective model indicates that the ASR for cataracts will rise to 1101.35×10 6 for male and 1616.63×10 6 for female by 2030. Conclusion:The trends from 1990 to 2030 suggested that the burden of cataract remains high in China. Maintaining good lifestyle habits such as switching to clean energy, reducing cigar intake, controlling blood glucose and weight can reduce the risk of cataracts. As aging increases, China should pay more attention to cataract-induced low vision and blindness and develop public policies to reduce the disease burden.

Global burden of pancreatic cancer attributable to metabolic risks from 1990 to 2019, with projections of mortality to 2030

“…The age-standardized rate (ASR) is a metric that can greatly eliminate the impacts of differences in age structure. The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model can achieve more reasonable predictions and was used in previous publications [ 21 , 22 ]. The “BAPC” package in RStudio software was used to predict ASR to 2030.…”

Time trends and gender disparities of Chinese cataract burden and their predictions

“…Therefore, postmenopausal women should be more aware of cataract prevention. Air pollution is strongly associated with cataract [33] , especially the household air pollution (HAP) from solid cookfuel use [34][35][36] , this is more serious in economically disadvantaged areas [37] , HAP could also cause many other ocular diseases such as conjunctivitis, glaucoma, and age-related macular degeneration (AMD) [34] . Small particulate matter from solid fuels including particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in diameter (PM2.5) is the crucial cause of cataract among the various factors of air pollution [38][39] .…”

Editorial: The role of multi-modal imaging in improving refractive cataract surgery and the understanding of retinal disease

“…Cataracts and retinal diseases represent a significant proportion of ocular diseases in ophthalmology, and their incidence shows a continuous upward trend ( 1 , 2 ). The advent of refractive cataract surgery and the patient's increasing demands of visual quality have led clinical practitioners to focus not only on the safety of cataract surgical procedures and the optimization of surgical plans but also to consider the specific retinal condition comprehensively.…”