China–US economic and trade relations, trade news, and short‐term fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate

Abstract

The trade war between the US and China affects the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate. We collect news on China-US trade policies and talks from January 2017 to July 2020. Results show that China-US dialogue and tariff imposition have the greatest impact on the percentage of RMB appreciation and depreciation. Additionally, tariff relaxation and increasing enterprise restrictions can cause a sharp appreciation and depreciation. "Policies" events and trade news from the US influence RMB fluctuations the most significantly. Finally, positive events cannot significantly cause RMB appreciation, but negative events can significantly cause RMB devaluation.

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