Climate and management impacts on crop growth and evapotranspiration in the North China Plain based on long-term eddy covariance observation

Yang, Cheng; Lei, Huimin

doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109147

Cited by 19 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 115 publications

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“…The sensitivity index has been frequently used for studying the impact of climatic variable changes on evapotranspiration changes [30]. In the calculation of the sensitivity index, the ET 0 changes are dimensionless by using the partial derivative for calculation simplicity.…”

Section: Methods Of Attribution Analysis 231 Sensitivity Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

Change Trend and Attribution Analysis of Reference Evapotranspiration under Climate Change in the Northern China

Guo,

Olesen,

Manevski

et al. 2023

Agronomy

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Reference evapotranspiration (ET0), an essential variable used to estimate crop evapotranspiration, is expected to change significantly under climate change. Detecting and attributing the change trend in ET0 to underlying drivers is therefore important to the adoption of agricultural water management under climate change. In this study, we focus on a typical agricultural region of the Fenwei Plain in northern China and use the Mann–Kendall test and contribution rate to detect the change and trend in ET0 at annual and seasonal scales and determine the major contribution factors to ET0 change for the baseline period (1985–2015) and the future period (2030–2060) based on high-resolution gridded data and climatic data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The results indicate that the annual ET0 of the Fenwei Plain showed a significant decreasing trend in the baseline period but insignificant and significant increasing trends in the future period under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. The annual ET0 of the plain under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios increase by 4.6% and 3.0%, respectively, compared to the baseline period. The change and trend in ET0 between the four seasons are different in the baseline and future periods. Winter and autumn show clear increases in ET0. VPD is the major contribution factor to the ET0 change in the plain. The change in ET0 is mainly driven by the climatic variables that change the most rather than by the climatic variables that are the most sensitive to the ET0 change. The change and trend in ET0 in the plain showed clear spatial differences, especially between the eastern and western area of the plain. To adapt to the impact of climate change on ET0, the irrigation schedule of the crops cultivated in the plain, the cropping system and management of the irrigation district in the plain need to be adjusted according to the change characteristics of spatial and temporal ET0 in the future. These results contribute to understanding the impacts of climate change on evapotranspiration in the study region and provide spatial and temporal references for adaptation in managing agricultural water use and crop cultivation under climate change.

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Section: Methods Of Attribution Analysis 231 Sensitivity Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

Change Trend and Attribution Analysis of Reference Evapotranspiration under Climate Change in the Northern China

Guo,

Olesen,

Manevski

et al. 2023

Agronomy

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“…Climate change significantly impacts climate parameters such as precipitation, atmospheric temperature, and relative humidity. Estimates of hydrological cycle parameters such as evapotranspiration, runoff and soil moisture are affected by changes in climate parameters (Lian et al 2020;Yang and Lei. 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison and applicability analysis of different evapotranspiration models for maize farmland in the lower Yellow River Plain based on the eddy covariance system

Ren

Zhang

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Evapotranspiration is an important part of the hydrological cycle and a key indicator to measure hydrological and energy transfer in the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum (SPAC). In this study, maize farmland in the lower Yellow River, an important grain production base in China, was selected as the research object. Based on the actual observation data of the eddy covariance system during the summer maize growth cycle, ten common evapotranspiration estimation models, including the FAO-56 Penman‒Monteith (P-M) model, Hargreaves–Samani (H-S) model, Priestley–Taylor (P-T) model, Makkink (Ma) model, Jensen–Haise (J-H) model, Irmark–Allen (I-A) model, Doorenbos–Pruitt (D-P) model, McCloud (Mc) model, Kimberly–Penman (K-P) model and Abtew (Ab) model, were evaluated in estimating the applicability of the actual evapotranspiration. The mean bias error (MBE), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R2), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and index of agreement (D) were chosen as evaluation indices. The Pearson correlation test and principal component analysis methods were used to explore the main influencing factors of actual evapotranspiration. The comprehensive ranking of the applicability of each model in the study area was obtained by synthesizing each index: J-H > P-T > Mc > K-P > I-A > P-M > D-P > Ab > Ma > H-S. it could be concluded that the J-H model was the most suitable in the study area, followed by the P-T model, while the H-S model attained the worst simulation performance. The evapotranspiration of summer maize at the tasseling-milky maturity stage in this region was the highest, and the solar radiation, net radiation and photosynthetically active radiation exhibited a strong correlation with evapotranspiration and greatly impacted evapotranspiration. This study plays an important role in the development of efficient water-saving agriculture, irrigation forecasting and sustainable utilization of water resources in the core area of grain production in China.

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“…With progress in research and the continuous development of technology, regional evapotranspiration can now be calculated more accurately by integrating innovative technologies such as remote sensing, or by improving the precision of the crop coefficient, so as to ensure regional water security and crop yield through good water resource management [13,14]. Currently, the majority of studies on evapotranspiration primarily focus on investigating its sensitivity to various meteorological factors [15][16][17] and its variations across different geographical conditions and climates [18,19]. Specifically, research on evapotranspiration in the BTH area mainly centers around understanding its temporal and spatial changes as well as historical patterns [20].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural and Industrial Water Demands in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region Using Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM)

Zhou,

Zhong,

Chen

et al. 2023

Water

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As a politically and culturally important city cluster, the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region is the most prominent area in China where the imbalance between the supply and demand of water resources restricts the sustainable and healthy development of the regional social economy. In the context of global warming, research into water demand prediction that takes climate change into consideration would be more in line with the strategic goal of the low-carbon sustainable development of future cities. At the same time, the prediction of agricultural water demands against a background of climate change is urgently needed, while industrial water consumption is weakly correlated with climate change, an investigation of the statistical relationship between the two is needed. Thus, in this paper, future climate data from the BTH region under the scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were generated using a statistical downscaling model, and then coupled with agricultural and industrial water demand prediction models to simulate and analyze the impact of climate change on the agricultural and industrial water demands, respectively. The results show that during the forecast period (2020–2035), the reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) growth rates in the Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei areas under the RCP2.6 scenario are 1.438 mm·a−1, 1.393 mm·a−1 and 2.059 mm·a−1, respectively. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, they are 2.252 mm·a−1, 2.310 mm·a−1 and 2.827 mm·a−1, respectively. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, they are 3.123 mm·a−1, 2.310 mm·a−1 and 2.141 mm·a−1, respectively. Furthermore, under each climate scenario, the increase in evapotranspiration in the Hebei area is the largest, followed by that in the Tianjin area, and that in the Beijing area is the smallest. For water consumption per CNY 10,000 of industrial added value during the forecast period, under the three different climate scenarios, a downward trend is seen in the Beijing area, with rates of 0.158, 0.153 and 0.110, respectively, but in the Tianjin area, there is an upward trend, with an upward tendency in rates of 0.170, 0.087 and 0.071, and an upward trend in the Hebei area, with an upward tendency in rates of 0.254, 0.071 and 0.036, respectively. This study will help the BTH region to rationally allocate agricultural and industrial water against the background of future climate change, and strengthen the coordination and cooperation between the different regions to promote the healthy and sustainable development of the cities.

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Climate and management impacts on crop growth and evapotranspiration in the North China Plain based on long-term eddy covariance observation

Cited by 19 publications

References 115 publications

Change Trend and Attribution Analysis of Reference Evapotranspiration under Climate Change in the Northern China

Change Trend and Attribution Analysis of Reference Evapotranspiration under Climate Change in the Northern China

Comparison and applicability analysis of different evapotranspiration models for maize farmland in the lower Yellow River Plain based on the eddy covariance system

Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural and Industrial Water Demands in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region Using Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM)

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