Climate change and bird extinctions in the Amazon

Abstract

In recent years, carbon dioxide emissions have been potentiated by several anthropogenic processes that culminate in climate change, which in turn directly threatens biodiversity and the resilience of natural ecosystems. Tropical rainforests are among the most impacted biological realms. The Belé m endemism center, which is one of the several endemism centers in Amazon, is located in the most affected area within the so-called "Deforestation Arc." Moreover, this region harbors a high concentration of Amazonian endangered bird species, of which 56% of them are considered to be under the threat of extinction. In this work, we sought to evaluate the current and future impacts of both climate change and deforestation on the distribution of endemic birds in the Belé m Area of Endemism (BEA). Thus, we generated species distribution models for the 16 endemic bird species considering the current and two future gas emission scenarios (optimistic and pessimistic). We also evaluated climate change impacts on these birds in three different dispersal contexts. Our results indicate that BAE, the endemic taxa will lose an average of 73% of suitable areas by 2050. At least six of these birds species will have less than 10% or no future suitable habitat in all emission scenarios. One of the main mechanisms used to mitigate the impacts of climate change on these species in the near future is to assess the current system of protected areas. It is necessary to ensure that these areas will continue being effective in conserving these species even under climate change. The "Gurupi Mosaic" and the "Rio-Capim" watershed are areas of great importance because they are considered climate refuges according to our study. Thus, conservation efforts should be directed to the maintenance and preservation of these two large remnants of vegetation in addition to creating ecological corridors between them.

Community Structure, Conservation Status, and Functional Groups of Bird Species in Mbeya Range Forests, Tanzania

“…Furthermore, Dale et al [11] highlighted that forest bird species are more affected when habitat is lost or the forest ecosystem structure is altered. When such changes persevere, some bird species composition and/ or abundance may decrease [8,9] and eventually become threatened [10,11]. Because of this, bird species have been used as environmental indicators [3,4].…”

“…They provide various ecosystem services, including habitats and water for birds [3]. However, rapid global population growth and rapid development pose a threat to the resilience of natural forest ecosystems and bird species [7,9]. Birds are an acknowledged group of animals that are often used as proxies for other elements of biodiversity [10].…”

“…These changes can negatively modify the community structure and composition of bird species. Further, when these changes persist, some bird species become endangered [8,9]. Thus, management of forest ecosystems is essential to ensure the survival of forest avifauna.…”

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“…Some recent extinctions events may have also been caused by such climatic fluctuations as those from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM hereafter) to nowadays [5]. These changes are not negligible and coupled with habitat loss and fragmentation from the deforestation process might be catastrophic for forestdependent pollinators in the future [1,6].…”

Reduced range size and Important Bird and Biodiversity Area coverage for the Harpy Eagle (Harpia harpyja) predicted from multiple climate change scenarios

“…Increasing temperatures interacting with extreme climates are predicted to have the greatest impact on bird populations at higher latitudes or elevations, driving poleward and upslope elevational range shifts (S ¸ekercioglu et al 2012(S ¸ekercioglu et al , Freeman et al 2018. However, in lowland tropical regions, where precipitation is a key determinant of avian distributions (S ¸ekercioglu et al 2012), climate change may not necessarily result in poleward range shifts but in multi-directional range shifts and contractions (VanDerWal et al 2013, de Moraes et al 2020, Sutton et al 2020.…”