Climate change and economic approaches into water allocation: optimization via direct benefits of water—the case study of Rudbar Lorestan hydropower dam (Iran)

Abstract

Climate change will affect hydrologic patterns in the Middle East over future decades. Already limited water resources will become further limited, creating further challenges for water allocation protocols. While there is no integrated climate/water allocation framework to develop sophisticated dynamic allocation patterns, determining the economic value of water in various markets is one way to optimize water allocation. In this paper, a non-linear optimizer code through the Conjugate Gradient Method has been applied to optimize water allocation in the Rudbar Lorestan Hydropower system (Iran) across four sectors (agriculture, industry, power, and urban). Climate scenarios and direct benefits of water in each sector have been considered as the inputs of the model for a 37 years period (2014-2050). The results of optimized allocation show that while each particular sector is impacted substantially from different climate scenarios, the total direct benefits of water in the basin vary between the narrow ranges of 14.75-16.75 billion USD for the same period. By considering the major characteristics of flexibility and adjustability, this methodology (Optimization via Economic Value of Water) can be considered an adaptive approach for addressing climate change and water allocation challenges.

Review article: Climate change impacts on dam safety

“…services and products related to water such as irrigation or hydropower production). Different works and methodologies have been developed to analyse how climate change may affect the resulting damage on the water resource systems (Hutton et al, 2007;Kazem et al, 2016;Quiroga et al, 2011).…”

Adaptation strategies of dam safety management to new climate change scenarios informed by risk indicators

“…In order to simplify the work, one can study only the impact in the most relevant activities affected (e.g., services and products related to water such as irrigation or hydropower production). Different works and methodologies have been developed to analyze how climate change may affect the resulting damage on the water resources systems (Hutton et al 2007;Kazem et al 2016;Quiroga et al 2011).…”