Climate Change and Extreme Heat Events

Luber, George; McGeehin, Michael A.

doi:10.1016/j.amepre.2008.08.021

Cited by 950 publications

(591 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…At the same time, it can result in decreases in the number of frost days and the expansion of the frost-free zone (see Online Resource 3), which would increase the survival of many insects and pests as well as the spread of crop diseases (Bale et al 2002). Changes in extreme temperatures can also impact human morbidity and mortality (Luber and McGeehin 2008;O'Neill and Ebi 2009). There would likely be competing effects with a negative impact from increasing extreme hot temperatures and a positive impact from decreasing extreme cold temperatures (Mills et al 2013b).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impacts on extreme events in the United States: an uncertainty analysis

Monier

Gao

2014

Climatic Change

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In this study, we analyze changes in extreme temperature and precipitation over the US in a 60-member ensemble simulation of the 21st century with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM). Four values of climate sensitivity, three emissions scenarios and five initial conditions are considered. The results show a general intensification and an increase in the frequency of extreme hot temperatures and extreme precipitation events over most of the US. Extreme cold temperatures are projected to decrease in intensity and frequency, especially over the northern parts of the US. This study displays a wide range of future changes in extreme events in the US, even simulated by a single climate model. Results clearly show that the choice of policy is the largest source of uncertainty in the magnitude of the changes. The impact of the climate sensitivity is largest for the unconstrained emissions scenario and the implementation of a stabilization scenario drastically reduces the changes in extremes, even for the highest climate sensitivity considered. Finally, simulations with different initial conditions show conspicuously different patterns and magnitudes of changes in extreme events, underlining the role of natural variability in projections of changes in extreme events.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impacts on extreme events in the United States: an uncertainty analysis

Monier

Gao

2014

Climatic Change

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“…Prolonged heat exposure could pose a major challenge to society coping with the effects of climate change, because heat waves can be a major public health hazard (Karl et al 2008). Warming weather and urban effects are known to both worsen the problem of heat-related illness in USA (Luber and McGeehin 2008). Risk management steps to counteract the effects related to extreme climatic events, such as reduced crop production, water scarcity, and public health hazards are contingent on accurate predictions of the changing weather patterns.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent warming trend in the coastal region of Qatar

Cheng

Saleem

Sadr

2015

Theor Appl Climatol

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The objective of this study was to analyze longterm temperature-related phenomena in the eastern portion of the Middle East, focusing on the coastal region of Qatar. Extreme temperature indices were examined, which were defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, for Doha, Qatar; these indices were then compared with those from neighboring countries. The trends were calculated for a 30-year period , using hourly data obtained from the National Climatic Data Center. The results showed spatially consistent warming trends throughout the region. For Doha, 11 of the 12 indices studied showed significant warming trends. In particular, the warming trends were represented by an increase in the number of warm days and nights and a decrease in the number of cool nights and days. The high-temperature extremes during the night have risen at more than twice the rate of their corresponding daytime extremes. The intensity and frequency of hot days have increased, and the minimum temperature indices exhibited a higher rate of warming. The climatic changes in Doha are consistent with the region-wide heat-up in recent decades across the Middle East. However, the rapid economic expansion, increase of population since the 1990s, and urban effects in the region are thought to have intensified the rapidly warming climate pattern observed in Doha since the turn of the century.

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“…For public health indicators, a temperature of 40.6°C provides an appropriate measure since it is a threshold that defines heat stroke and may contribute to mortality if the core temperature of the individual is measured at or above this level (Luber and McGeehin 2008). Also, as a proxy for heat stress due to high relative humidity, this study employs a simplified wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Variables examined include the total number of days in a month with maximum temperatures exceeding 40.6°C (Luber and McGeehin 2008), heat stress due to high relative humidity (Knowlton et al 2009) and nighttime temperatures Greene and Kalkstein 1996). Heat stress has been found to be especially important in terms of societal impact in recent studies (Mastrangelo et al 2006) and has been applied within the context of PEA (Sippel and Otto 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change, climate justice and the application of probabilistic event attribution to summer heat extremes in the California Central Valley

et al. 2015

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Probabilistic event attribution (PEA) is an important tool for assessing the contribution of climate change to extreme weather events. Here, PEA is applied to explore the climate attribution of recent extreme heat events in California's Central Valley. Heat waves have become progressively more severe due to increasing relative humidity and nighttime temperatures, which increases the health risks of exposed communities, especially Latino farmworkers and other socioeconomically disadvantaged communities. Using a superensemble of simulations with the Hadley Centre Regional Model (HadRM3P), we find that (1) simulations of the hottest summer days during the 2000s were twice as likely to occur using observed levels of greenhouse gases than in a counterfactual world without major human activities, suggesting a strong relationship between heat extremes and the increase in human emissions of greenhouse gases, (2) detrimental impacts of heat on public health-relevant variables, such as the number of days above 40°C, can be quantified and attributed to human Climatic Change (2015) 133:427-438 DOI 10.1007/s10584-015-1474-

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Climate Change and Extreme Heat Events

Cited by 950 publications

References 40 publications

Climate change impacts on extreme events in the United States: an uncertainty analysis

Climate change impacts on extreme events in the United States: an uncertainty analysis

Recent warming trend in the coastal region of Qatar

Climate change, climate justice and the application of probabilistic event attribution to summer heat extremes in the California Central Valley

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