Climate Change and Grain Production Fluctuations

Abstract

50 year-long time series from a Long Term Agronomic Experiment have been used to to investigate the effects of climate change on yields of Wheat and Maize. Trends and fluctuations, useful to estimate production forecasts and related risks are compared to national ones, a classical regional climatic index as Western Mediterranean Oscillation Index, and a global one given by Sun Spot Number. Data, denoised by EMD and SSA, show how SSN oscillations slowing down in the last decades, affects regional scale dynamics, where in the last two decades a range of fluctuations (7-16 years) are also evident. Both signals reflects on yield fluctuations of Wheat and Maize both a national and local level.