Climate Change and Human Activities, the Significant Dynamic Drivers of Himalayan Goral Distribution (Naemorhedus goral)

Abstract

The distribution of large ungulates is more often negatively impacted by the changing climate, especially global warming and species with limited distributional zones. While developing conservation action plans for the threatened species such as the Himalayan goral (Naemorhedus goral Hardwicke 1825; a mountain goat that mostly inhabits rocky cliffs), it is imperative to comprehend how future distributions might vary based on predicted climate change. In this work, MaxEnt modeling was employed to assess the habitat suitability of the target species under varying climate scenarios. Such studies have provided highly useful information but to date no such research work has been conducted that considers this endemic animal species of the Himalayas. A total of 81 species presence points, 19 bioclimatic and 3 topographic variables were employed in the species distribution modeling (SDM), and MaxEnt calibration and optimization were performed to select the best candidate model. For predicted climate scenarios, the future data is drawn from SSPs 245 and SSPs 585 of the 2050s and 2070s. Out of total 20 variables, annual precipitation, elevation, precipitation of driest month, slope aspect, minimum temperature of coldest month, slope, precipitation of warmest quarter, and temperature annual range (in order) were detected as the most influential drivers. A high accuracy value (AUC-ROC > 0.9) was observed for all the predicted scenarios. The habitat suitability of the targeted species might expand (about 3.7 to 13%) under all the future climate change scenarios. The same is evident according to local residents as species which are locally considered extinct in most of the area, might be shifting northwards along the elevation gradient away from human settlements. This study recommends additional research is conducted to prevent potential population collapses, and to identify other possible causes of local extinction events. Our findings will aid in formulating conservation plans for the Himalayan goral in a changing climate and serve as a basis for future monitoring of the species.

Conserving the critically endangered Hangul (Cervus hanglu hanglu) - Future distribution and efficiency of protected areas under climate change: Implications for the conservation of Dachigam landscape

“…Similarly, Jiang (2018), and Chen et al ( 2023) observed that the driest months' precipitation exerted a notable in uence on the distribution of endemic, rare, and threatened species, similar to our ndings. This is corroborated by numerous other investigations, e.g., for Pygathrix cinerea (Tran et al, 2018); Himalayan Goral (Haq et al, 2023), Red panda (Thapa et al, 2018) and Tragopan melanocephalus (Jameel et al, 2023). The second most important variable was bio19 (coldest month precipitation), the third elevation, and the fourth was bio08 (wettest quarter mean temperature).…”

“…The Zanskar Range experiences a considerable range in minimum and maximum rainfall, varying from 32 mm to 546 mm annually. This uctuation in precipitation is vital for the ecological dynamics and sustenance of the Hangul population (Haq et al, 2023).…”

“…We have recently been helped to grasp possible species distribution shifts more thoroughly by better methods of simulating species distributions and climate change. It has been shown that the Maxent Model works very adept at forecasting the geographic ranges of species because of climate change (Ab Lah et al 2021;Gilani et al 2020;Haq et al 2023). While acknowledging the temporal variability, mapping species distributions under climate change offers valuable insights into understanding its comprehensive impact.…”

Distribution model and prediction of the tree fern Alsophila costularis Baker (Cyatheaceae) in China

“…Accurate prediction of species distribution models requires more comprehensive and better distributed occurrence records of species (Feeley & Silman, 2011 ; Hernandez et al., 2006 ). Meanwhile, ecological interactions, dispersal capacity, and habitat preferences all affect the accuracy of modeling results (Haq et al., 2023 ).…”

Documentation of ethnomedicinal plants used by the people living in reserved forests of semi-arid region Punjab Pakistan

“…The utilization of medicinal plants within semi-arid regions has been a noteworthy practice. These regions, characterized by limited water availability and challenging climatic conditions, have witnessed the persistent use of indigenous plant species for therapeutic purposes Waheed et al 2023;Haq et al 2023b). The traditional knowledge surrounding these plants passed down through generations, holds a rich repository of healing wisdom (Haq et al 2023c).…”