Climate Change and Structural Vulnerability of a Metropolitan Energy System

Abstract

SummaryIn this article, we present methodology and results of a vulnerability assessment of the energy system of the metropolitan region Bremen-Oldenburg in Northwest Germany. This work is part of the regional climate adaptation project "nordwest2050" aiming at innovative solutions toward a climate-proof and resilient region. Methodologically, we extended the established vulnerability assessment based on climate change impacts by a structural analysis, highlighting general weaknesses of the metropolitan energy system. Our findings indicate that the structural vulnerabilities of the energy system around Bremen-Oldenburg pose a greater threat to maintaining the system's services than climate change itself. Climatechange-based vulnerabilities, however, aggravate many of the structural vulnerabilities and therefore demand attention in their own right. The structural vulnerabilities mainly originate from political and regulatory uncertainties, turbulent market conditions, conflicts along the supply chains, and the current dynamics in the energy sector induced by increased climate mitigation efforts. One of our main conclusions is thus that the metropolitan energy system's capabilities to handle turbulence, perturbations, and surprises must be improved. This will also help in reducing the climate-change vulnerabilities, because such a system is better equipped when facing currently hard-to-predict changes in climate parameters. The results of the assessment described here will be used as the starting point to find options for innovations toward a climate-proof and resilient energy system for the region in the course of the remaining project.

Cross-sectoral integration in regional adaptation to climate change via participatory scenario development

“…Due to the temperate climate and the high level of development, the regional vulnerabilities were found to be moderate in the majority of sectors (Schuchardt 2012). Furthermore, the uncertainties of socio-economic developments tend to outweigh those coming along with climate change (Gößling-Reisemann et al 2013).…”

Transformation toward a Secure and Precaution-Oriented Energy System with the Guiding Concept of Resilience—Implementation of Low-Exergy Solutions in Northwestern Germany

“…Therefore, it may be necessary to change the system structures radically to maintain the system services. For example, the energy system services could be defined quantitatively and qualitatively by technical parameters like the provided connected load which was agreed with consumers and by non-technical parameters like global warming potential and social acceptability [25]. Secondly, several studies apply resilience as an analytical category, i.e., they introduce the term to analyze or measure the resilience of systems.…”

“…Secondly, several studies apply resilience as an analytical category, i.e., they introduce the term to analyze or measure the resilience of systems. In contrast, and to distance themselves from the principle of readjustment and subsequent improvement the project team used resilience as a guiding concept to design socio-technical systems toward security and precaution [25].…”

“…As part of a vulnerability analysis [25] which was carried out by literature researches and evaluations as well as an exchange with regional energy supply companies, the project team initially analyzed regional climate change impacts and associated needs for adaptation (demand pull). In this regard, the researchers found out that the vulnerability of the regional energy system is less a result of direct climatic effects because regional energy suppliers are already used to dealing with a wide multitude of climatic uncertainties (e.g., through the redundancy in electricity networks (N-1 security) or the diversification of primary energy sources suppliers) [32].…”

“…In this regard, they concluded that the refrigeration market has a need for low-exergy solutions which will be exacerbated by future climate change-induced rising demand for refrigeration applications according to the vulnerability analysis [25]. Thus, the project team focused on the refrigeration market during further processing and specified low-exergy solutions to the guiding design principle "climate-adapted refrigeration".…”