Climate change-driven range losses among bumblebee species are poised to accelerate

Sirois-Delisle, Catherine; Kerr, Jeremy T.

doi:10.1038/s41598-018-32665-y

Cited by 75 publications

(87 citation statements)

References 90 publications

(113 reference statements)

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“…Bumble bees are poised to experience shifts in HS across both altitude and latitude in the next 50 years [3]. Species loss at low latitude environments and species gain in high latitude environments are estimated to occur predominantly eastern North America [2]. However, in western North America, where the landscape is characterized by a diversity of mountain ranges, the loss of bumble bee diversity is complex, likely due to differences in community assemblages across the region [2].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Species loss at low latitude environments and species gain in high latitude environments are estimated to occur predominantly eastern North America [2]. However, in western North America, where the landscape is characterized by a diversity of mountain ranges, the loss of bumble bee diversity is complex, likely due to differences in community assemblages across the region [2]. Along the Rocky Mountain spine, it appears that species gain is estimated to occur in some regions, likely due to a shift in HS across a latitude gradient.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Pollinator communities worldwide are undergoing dramatic changes in both abundance and composition that may put pollination service at risk in many terrestrial ecosystems [1]. These changes may not solely be unidirectional declines in species abundance, but can manifest as shifts in geographic range, increases in abundance where new habitat is formed, or shifts in phenology [2–4]. To date, documented changes in pollinator communities have been attributed to many factors, including pathogen outbreaks, pesticides, climate change, introduced species, and land-use change [4–9].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To date, documented changes in pollinator communities have been attributed to many factors, including pathogen outbreaks, pesticides, climate change, introduced species, and land-use change [4–9]. Identifying the factors affecting pollinator communities can be challenging as most strategies investigate distinct taxonomic groups (guilds) [10], or attempt to isolate specific threats and measure a single species’ responses to the threat in question [2–4,11]. However, given the negative impacts of rapid global change [1,5], it is imperative to identify which pollinator species out of a guild might be most vulnerable to a specific environmental impact.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Studies like Miller-Struttmann et al thereby suggest that species that are adapted to alpine environments might be exposed to greater evolutionary pressures in the next 50 years due to climate change [17,21–24]. Under currently projected climate models, bumble bee distributions are predicted to shift to higher latitudes in the cases where habitat suitability gains in altitude are limited [2,3,8].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Projected climate change will reduce habitat suitability for bumble bees in the Pacific Northwest

Looney

Hopkins

et al. 2019

Preprint

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21Global climate change is the greatest environmental challenge of the modern era. The impacts of 22 climate change are increasingly well understood, and have already begun to materialize across 23 diverse ecosystems and organisms. Bumble bees (Bombus) are suspected to be highly sensitive to 24 climate change as they are predominately adapted to temperate and alpine environments. In this 25 study, we determine which bumble bee species are most vulnerable to climate change in the 26 Pacific Northwest. The Pacific Northwest is a topographically complex landscape that is 27 punctuated by two major mountain ranges and a labyrinth of offshore islands in the Salish Sea. 28 Using standardized survey methods, our study documents the occurrence of 15 bumble bee 29 species across 23 field sites in seven federal parks, historical sites, and monuments. Our results 30show that bumble bee community richness and diversity increases along an altitude gradient in 31 these protected areas. Furthermore, NMDS analysis reveals that high altitude environments are 32 composed of a unique group of bumble bee species relative to low altitude environments. 33Finally, based on an analysis of species distributions models that aggregate bioclimatic data from 34 global circulation climate models with preserved specimen records, we discover that 80% of the 35 bumble bee species detected in our survey are poised to undergo habitat suitability (HS) loss 36 within the next 50 years. Species primarily found in high altitude environments namely B. 37 vandykei, B. sylvicola, and B. bifarius are projected to incur a mean HS loss of 63%, 59%, and 38 30% within the federally protected areas, respectively. While the implementation of climate 39 change policies continue to be a significant challenge, the development of mitigation strategies to 40 conserve the most vulnerable species may be a tractable option for land managers and 41 stakeholders of protected areas. Our study meets this need by identifying which species and 42 communities are most sensitive to climate change.43 44 45 Pollinator communities worldwide are undergoing dramatic changes in both abundance 46 and composition that may put pollination service at risk in many terrestrial ecosystems [1]. These 47 changes may not solely be unidirectional declines in species abundance, but can manifest as 48 shifts in geographic range, increases in abundance where new habitat is formed, or shifts in 49 phenology [2-4]. To date, documented changes in pollinator communities have been attributed to 50 many factors, including pathogen outbreaks, pesticides, climate change, introduced species, and 51 land-use change [4-9]. Identifying the factors affecting pollinator communities can be 52 challenging as most strategies investigate distinct taxonomic groups (guilds) [10], or attempt to 53 isolate specific threats and measure a single species' responses to the threat in question [2-4,11].54However, given the negative impacts of rapid global change [1,5], it is imperative to identify 55 which pollinator ...

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Projected climate change will reduce habitat suitability for bumble bees in the Pacific Northwest

Looney

Hopkins

et al. 2019

Preprint

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Community science validates climate suitability projections from ecological niche modeling

Saunders

Michel

Bateman

et al. 2020

Ecological Applications

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Climate change poses an intensifying threat to many bird species and projections of future climate suitability provide insight into how species may shift their distributions in response. Climate suitability is characterized using ecological niche models (ENMs), which correlate species occurrence data with current environmental covariates and project future distributions using the modeled relationships together with climate predictions. Despite their widespread adoption, ENMs rely on several assumptions that are rarely validated in situ and can be highly sensitive to modeling decisions, precluding their reliability in conservation decision‐making. Using data from a novel, large‐scale community science program, we developed dynamic occupancy models to validate near‐term climate suitability projections for bluebirds and nuthatches in summer and winter. We estimated occupancy, colonization, and extinction dynamics across species’ ranges in the United States in relation to projected climate suitability in the 2020s, and used a Gibbs variable selection approach to quantify evidence of species–climate relationships. We also included a Bird Conservation Region strata‐level random effect to examine among‐strata variation in occupancy that may be attributable to land‐use and ecoregional differences. Across species and seasons, we found strong evidence that initial occupancy and colonization were positively related to 2020 climate suitability, illustrating an independent validation of projections from ENMs across a large geographic area. Random strata effects revealed that occupancy probabilities were generally higher than average in core areas and lower than average in peripheral areas of species’ ranges, and served as a first step in identifying spatial patterns of occupancy from these community science data. Our findings lend much‐needed support to the use of ENM projections for addressing questions about potential climate‐induced changes in species’ occupancy dynamics. More broadly, our work highlights the value of community scientist observations for ground‐truthing projections from statistical models and for refining our understanding of the processes shaping species’ distributions under a changing climate.

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Potential regional declines in species richness of tomato pollinators in North America under climate change

Carrasco

Papeş

Lochner

et al. 2020

Ecological Applications

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About 70% of the world's main crops depend on insect pollination. Climate change is already affecting the abundance and distribution of insects, which could cause geographical mismatches between crops and their pollinators. Crops that rely primarily on wild pollinators (e.g., crops that cannot be effectively pollinated by commercial colonies of honey bees) could be particularly in jeopardy. However, limited information on plant-pollinator associations and pollinator distributions complicate the assessment of climate change impacts on specific crops. To study the potential impacts of climate change on pollination of a specific crop in North America, we use the case of open-field tomato crops, which rely on buzz pollinators (species that use vibration to release pollen, such as bumble bees) to increase their production. We aimed to (1) assess potential changes in buzz pollinator distribution and richness, and (2) evaluate the overlap between areas with high densities of tomato crops and high potential decrease in richness. We used baseline (1961-1990) climate and future (2050s and 2080s) climatic projections in ecological niche models fitted with occurrences of wild bees, documented in the literature as pollinators of tomatoes, to estimate the baseline and future potential distribution of suitable climatic conditions of targeted species and to create maps of richness change across North America. We obtained reliable models for 15 species and found important potential decreases in the distribution of some pollinators (e.g., Lasioglossum pectorale and Augochlorella aurata). We observed geographical discrepancies in the projected change in species richness across North America, detecting important declines in the eastern United States (up to 11 species decrease for 2050s). After overlapping the maps of species richness change with a tomato crop map for the United States, we found spatial correspondence between richness declines and areas with high concentration of tomato crops. Disparities in the effects of climate change on the potential future distribution of different wild pollinators and geographical variation in richness highlight the importance of crop-specific studies. Our study also emphasizes the challenges of compiling and modeling crop-specific pollinator data and the need to improve our understanding of current distribution of pollinators and their community dynamics under climate change.

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Climate change-driven range losses among bumblebee species are poised to accelerate

Cited by 75 publications

References 90 publications

Projected climate change will reduce habitat suitability for bumble bees in the Pacific Northwest

Projected climate change will reduce habitat suitability for bumble bees in the Pacific Northwest

Community science validates climate suitability projections from ecological niche modeling

Potential regional declines in species richness of tomato pollinators in North America under climate change

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