Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein

Abstract

Nendel 38 | Jørgen Eivind Olesen 37 | Taru Palosuo 44 | John R. Porter 42,45,46 | Eckart Priesack 39 | Dominique Ripoche 47 | Mikhail A. Semenov 48 | Claudio Stöckle 17 | Pierre Stratonovitch 48 | Thilo Streck 33 | Iwan Supit 49 | Fulu Tao 50,44 | Marijn Van der Velde 51 | Daniel Wallach 52 | Enli Wang 53 | Heidi Webber 30,38 AbstractWheat grain protein concentration is an important determinant of wheat quality for human nutrition that is often overlooked in efforts to improve crop production. We tested and applied a 32-multi-model ensemble to simulate global wheat yield and quality in a changing climate. Potential benefits of elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentration by 2050 on global wheat grain and protein yield are likely to be negated by impacts from rising temperature and changes in rainfall, but with considerable 156 |

Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming

“…All models in the ensemble were calibrated for the phenology of local cultivars and used site‐specific soils and crop management. The multi‐model ensemble used here has been tested against observed field data and showed reliable response to changing climate in several previous studies, including responses of model ensemble to elevated CO 2 , post‐anthesis chronic warming and different heat shock treatments during grain filling (Asseng et al, ; Wallach et al, ). Hoffman et al () and Ruane et al () showed that a multi‐model ensemble can also reproduce some of observed seasonal yield variability.…”

“…An ensemble of 31 wheat crop models was used to assess climate change impacts for 60 representative wheat‐growing locations developed by the AgMIP‐Wheat team (Assenget al, ; Wallach et al, ). All models in the ensemble were calibrated for the phenology of local cultivars and used site‐specific soils and crop management.…”

“…Several simulation studies have assessed the changes in global wheat production due to the changes in climate and CO 2 concentration (Assenget al, ; Rosenzweig et al, ). However, previous studies have almost all considered more extreme warming and most of current studies investigated the impact of global warming >2.0°C, which means that previous impact assessments lacked details for <2°C of warming.…”

“…Process‐based crop simulation models, as tools to quantify the complexity of crop growth as driven by climate, soil, and management practice, have been widely used in climate change impact assessments at different spatial scales (Challinor, Martre, et al, ; Challinor, Watson, et al, ; Chenu et al, ; Ewert, Rötter, et al, ; Porter et al, ), including multi‐model ensemble approaches (Assenget al, ; Wang, Martre, et al, ; Wang, Lin, et al, ). The multi‐model ensemble approach has been proven to be a reliable method in reproducing the main effects anticipated for climate chance when simulations are compared with field experimental observations (including changes in temperature, heat events, rainfall, atmospheric CO 2 concentration [CO 2 ], and their interactions) (Assenget al, ; Wallach et al, ; Wang, Martre, et al, ; Wang, Lin, et al, ).…”

“…Here, we applied a global network of 60 representative wheat production sites and an ensemble of 31 crop models (Asseng et al, ) developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Team (Rosenzweig et al, ) with climate scenarios from five Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project (Mitchell et al, ; Ruane, Phillips, & Rosenzweig, ) to evaluate the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5 and 2.0°C warming above the pre‐industrial period, referred hereafter as “1.5 scenario” and “2.0 scenario”) on global wheat production and yield interannual variability. We hypothesize that the mean impacts of warming may not differ greatly between the two scenarios as losses due to accelerated development are compensated by gains from elevated CO 2 .…”