Climate Change Impact on Future Rainfall and Temperature in Semi-arid Areas (Essaouira Basin, Morocco)

Ouhamdouch, Salah; Bahir, Mohammed

doi:10.1007/s40710-017-0265-4

Cited by 71 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…This study confirms the results of other studies conducted on climate change in the Moroccan context ( Seif-Ennasr et al., 2016 ; Hirich et al., 2016 ; Ouhamdouch and Bahir, 2017 ; Brouziyne et al., 2018 ), and in the Mediterranean region ( Ozturk et al., 2015 ; Tellería et al., 2016 ; D'Oria et al., 2017 ; Zittis et al., 2019 ). In other the regions in Morocco that have different climate type such as Chtouka Aït Baha region in the South of Morocco, the temperature increases of 3 °C for 2030–2049 and precipitation shows a reduction of 10%–30% for 2030–2049 ( Seif-Ennasr et al., 2016 ).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

“…On the other hand, in Essaouira region (Northwest of Morocco), the results showed a downward trend along with an upward trend of annual rainfall. But the annual mean temperature was found to increase by 0.72 °C ( Ouhamdouch and Bahir, 2017 ). About the region of Fez-Meknes region (Northeast of Morocco), the area will definitely experience rainfall drop and mean temperature increase ( Brouziyne et al., 2018 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Analysis and prediction of climate forecasts in Northern Morocco: application of multilevel linear mixed effects models using R software

Beroho

Briak

Halimi

et al. 2020

Heliyon

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For many years, the application of mixed-effects modeling has received much attention for predicting scenarios in the fields of theoretical and applied sciences. In this study, a “new” Multilevel Linear Mixed-Effects (LME) model is proposed to analyze and predict multiply-nested and hierarchical data. Temperature and rainfall observation were carried out successively between 1979-2014 and 1984–2018; and the data input was organized on monthly basis for each year. Besides, a daily observation was made for “Dar Chaoui” zone of Northern Morocco. However, we chose in the first time a simple linear regression model, but the estimation has been just for fixed effects and ignoring the random effect. On the other hand, in multilevel linear mixed effects models, once the model has been formulated, methods are needed to estimate the model parameters. In this section, we first deal with the joint estimation of the fixed effects (β), random effects (ui) and then with estimation of the variance parameters (γ, ρ and σ 2 ). The study revealed that the predicted values are very close to the real value. Besides, this model is capable of modelling the error, fixed and random parts of the sample. Moreover, in this range, the results showed that there is three standard deviations measures for fixed and random effects, also the variance measure, which demonstrate us a great prediction. In conclusion, this model gives a decisive precision of results that can be exploited in studies for forecast of water balance and/or soil erosion. These results can also be used to inhibit the risk of erosion with possible arrangements for the environment and human security.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis and prediction of climate forecasts in Northern Morocco: application of multilevel linear mixed effects models using R software

Beroho

Briak

Halimi

et al. 2020

Heliyon

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“…It is limited in the north by Hadid anticline, by Meskala region in the south, by Mramer wadi in the east, and Atlantic Ocean in the west. This basin is controlled by a semi-arid climate, with an average annual rainfall of 300 mm and temperatures of 20 °C [23]. In geomorphological terms, the Essaouira synclinal zone is less rugged, with a lower relief characterized by low hills and shaped by a sparse water system.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

The use of GIS and water quality index to assess groundwater quality of krimat aquifer (Essaouira; Morocco)

et al. 2020

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The aim of this present study was to evaluate groundwater quality in the upstream part of the Essaouira basin. A detailed geochemical study of groundwater region is described, and the origin of the chemical composition of groundwater has been qualitatively evaluated, using multivariate statistical methods (PCA, HCA), and Water Quality Index (WQI) was used to determine the suitability of water for drinking. To attempt this investigation, 38 samples were analysed for various physicochemical parameters such as temperature, pH, TDS, Na, NO 3 , K, Ca, HCO 3 , Cl, Mg, and SO 4. The results obtained showed that the facies characterizing the study area was a combination of Ca-SO 4 and mixed Ca-Mg-Cl. Hydrochemical approach based on the bivariate diagrams of major ions indicates that the origins of groundwater mineralization are the result of (I) evaporite dissolution; (II) cation-exchange reactions; and (III) evaporation processes. The WQI values range from 82.3 to 390.9, and therefore the water samples can be categorized into five groups: excellent water to water unsuitable for drinking. In global, 61% of the groundwater sampled had poor water quality, 18% were very poor water quality, 16% are unsuitable for drinking, and just 6% represent a good quality. However, the results of this paper indicate that most water is not safe for drinking and needs further treatment.

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“…Within the current context of global climate change associated with an increase in flood damage, the efficient use of available data is, in most cases, the primary source of judgement control in decision-making for flood risk management (Ouma and Tateishi, 2014). Producing flood resilience maps has thus become a crucial issue for local flood management planners (Godschalk, 2003).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The obtained results highlight the importance of using a multidimensional approach to assess flood resilience. Furthermore, GISs are also highly recommended as a solution to complex situations and as a decision-support tool that offers an interactive use and continued improvement (Ouma and Tateishi, 2014;Mayunga, 2007).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatialized flood resilience measurement in rapidly urbanized coastal areas with a complex semi-arid environment in northern Morocco

Satour

Raji²,

Moçayd³

et al. 2021

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Enhancing resilience is critical for coastal urban systems to cope with and minimize flood disaster risks. This issue is certainly more important in Africa, where the increase in flood frequency is a significant concern for many areas. In this context, urban planners need accurate approaches to set up a standard for measuring the resilience to floods. In Morocco, this issue is still not fully covered by the scientific community despite the obvious need for a new approach adapted to local conditions. This study applied a composite index and geographic-information-system approach to measure and map resilience to floods in three northern coastal municipalities. The approach is also based on a linear ranking of resilience parameters, offering a more optimal classification of spatial resilience variation. The results allowed us to identify specific areas with different resilience levels and revealed the relationship between urban dimensions and the flood resilience degree. This approach provides an efficient decision-support tool to facilitate flood risk management, especially in terms of prioritizing protective actions.

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Climate Change Impact on Future Rainfall and Temperature in Semi-arid Areas (Essaouira Basin, Morocco)

Cited by 71 publications

References 36 publications

Analysis and prediction of climate forecasts in Northern Morocco: application of multilevel linear mixed effects models using R software

Analysis and prediction of climate forecasts in Northern Morocco: application of multilevel linear mixed effects models using R software

The use of GIS and water quality index to assess groundwater quality of krimat aquifer (Essaouira; Morocco)

Spatialized flood resilience measurement in rapidly urbanized coastal areas with a complex semi-arid environment in northern Morocco

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