Climate Change Impact on Potential Distribution of an Endemic Species Abies marocana Trabut

Abstract

Global warming is becoming a major concern affecting many components of the biodiversity at a global scale and disproportionately affecting the integrity of ecosystems, particularly the habitat of endemic species. Understanding its impacts on most vulnerable species is essential to improve knowledge on the ecology of these species and for their long-term management and conservation. Abies marocana Trabut (Moroccan fir), a remarkable forest tree of the Mediterranean basin, is an endangered species that is present in discreet small areas of the Rif Mountains, which is highly vulnerable to the ongoing climate warming and facing severe anthropogenic pressures. For conservation and management purposes, our work focused on improving understanding of the impacts of future climate change on the distribution of this species through its habitat suitability modeling. The maximum entropy approach was used, which achieved good predictive abilities. Habitat suitability was identified and then predicted under current and future climate conditions. A significant change and a gradual regression of the habitat suitability to A. marocana was shown under different future climate scenarios. The magnitude of the simulated changes is important and tends to have negative consequences for Moroccan fir conservation. For this purpose, outputs from models are useful to improve our knowledge about the ecology of A. marocana, and predictive maps produced under current and future climate conditions constitute reflection tools available to scientists and managers to better integrate actual and future climate impacts into existing and upcoming management strategies to prevent any future locale extinction.

Rising Temperatures, Falling Leaves: Predicting the Fate of Cyprus’s Endemic Oak under Climate and Land Use Change

“…Studies investigating the impacts of losing foundational tree species in other Mediterranean hotspots (whether from drought, fires, or pests) indicate adverse effects on overall species richness, trophic cascade disruptions, and degradation of habitats relied upon by a diverse range of flora and fauna. Our findings resonate strongly with broader, dire assessments of biodiversity threats faced by vulnerable Mediterranean endemic tree species [ 11 , 46 , 48 , 51 ]. Cyprus’ island environment amplifies those risks and underlines the urgent need for holistic responses—prioritising biodiversity conservation through integrated habitat protection alongside mitigation strategies that consider future ecological and human needs in tandem.…”

“…This underscores the severity of climate- and land-use-driven range reductions, fragmentation, and competitive pressures predicted for this iconic Cypriot endemic tree. Our model outcomes mirror those for Abies marocana [ 51 ] and Cedrus libani [ 136 ], other characteristic Mediterranean trees facing overwhelming range contraction over the coming decades, and indicate the stark possibility that without proactive climate-focused conservation, such emblematic Mediterranean trees could dwindle towards local extinction—a grave cost for biodiversity across the Eastern Mediterranean. It thus seems that, as with many large, slow-growing trees, oaks, cedars, junipers, and firs [ 11 , 13 , 48 , 51 ] may lack the ability to disperse efficiently into altered ranges fast enough to keep pace with the rapid change predicted.…”

“…Our model outcomes mirror those for Abies marocana [ 51 ] and Cedrus libani [ 136 ], other characteristic Mediterranean trees facing overwhelming range contraction over the coming decades, and indicate the stark possibility that without proactive climate-focused conservation, such emblematic Mediterranean trees could dwindle towards local extinction—a grave cost for biodiversity across the Eastern Mediterranean. It thus seems that, as with many large, slow-growing trees, oaks, cedars, junipers, and firs [ 11 , 13 , 48 , 51 ] may lack the ability to disperse efficiently into altered ranges fast enough to keep pace with the rapid change predicted. These findings and our insights about Quercus alnifolia reinforce the notion that even diverse Mediterranean plant taxa with extensive current geographic presence are under intense, climate-linked pressures in this climate change hotspot.…”

“…Species distribution models that rely solely on climatic variables might misrepresent the true extent of projected range shifts for sensitive species, leading to either risk overestimations or underestimations and incomplete quantification of the species’ niche [ 55 , 95 , 119 ]. While Mediterranean oaks, cedars, firs, and pines face significant pressures from climate change, most of these studies only focus on standard bioclimatic variables, or some incorporate temporally static soil or topographical variables [ 13 , 14 , 45 , 46 , 51 ]. Moreover, analyses omitting realistic dispersal scenarios—and other site-specific soil or hydrological constraints, as well as the incorporation of land-use change data—may underestimate potential contractions in suitable habitat, as they ignore the critical influence of dispersal constraints and land-use modifications on range shifts [ 119 , 120 , 121 ] and may lead to lower model performance [ 81 ].…”

“…Climate change thus threatens the habitat suitability, growth, regeneration capacity, and distribution ranges of many Mediterranean tree species [ 49 ], and increased drought stress and extreme heat are expected to cause tree growth declines, higher mortality risks, and increasing disturbance from fires, pests, and diseases [ 50 ]. The impacts of climate change may exceed the resilience and adaptive capacity of many relict Mediterranean tree populations that have persisted in microrefugia, thus causing local extinctions [ 51 , 52 ].…”