Climate change impacts on groundwater hydrology – where are the main uncertainties and can they be reduced?

Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Sonnenborg, Torben O.; Butts, M. B.; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg; Christensen, Steen; Drews, Martin; Jensen, Karsten H.; Jørgensen, Flemming; Jørgensen, Lisbeth Flindt; Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl; Rasmussen, Søren Højmark; Seaby, Lauren Paige; Seifert, Dorte; Vilhelmsen, Troels Norvin

doi:10.1080/02626667.2015.1131899

Cited by 36 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…), na de tratamentos dos dados ou mesmo na de modelagem. Embora esse tema não venha a ser abordado neste trabalho, deve-se ter em mente que há várias fontes possíveis de erros e incertezas que precisam ser levadas em consideração para que se alcance uma efetiva validação dos resultados obtidos pelos modelos (Refsgaard et al, 2007;Weiler e Mcdonnell, 2007;Beven, 2013;Di Baldassarre et al, 2016;Refsgaard et al, 2016).…”

Section: Parametrização Calibração Validação E Verificaçãounclassified

Modelagem em Geografia Física: Teoria, Potencialidades e Desafios

Fernandes

2016

EspacoAberto

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A modelagem vem se consolidando como importante ferramenta de análise nos diferentes campos da geografia física. Este artigo busca uma reflexão sobre o uso de modelos na geografia física, discutindo suas bases teóricas, as principais potencialidades de aplicação e os maiores desafios a serem enfrentados. São aqui discutidos modelos voltados para a predição, para a retrodição e para o teste de hipóteses. Ênfase é dada à análise dos modelos matemáticos, sejam eles empíricos, determinísticos ou mesmo estocásticos, discutindo as vantagens e desvantagens do uso de modelos concentrados ou distribuídos, assim como transientes ou de equilíbrio. As diferenças entre as etapas de parametrização, calibração, validação e verificação durante o desenvolvimento de modelos são apresentadas e discutidas. Por último, são apresentados alguns dos principais problemas e desafios associados a um efetivo emprego de modelos na geografia física, com destaque para as relações entre modelagem e metodologia científica, a questão da equifinalidade e a determinação das incertezas envolvidas. A discussão aqui apresentada destaca que modelos com elevado grau de acerto não necessariamente representam “bons modelos” em termos conceituais. Para que a modelagem continue se consolidando como importante ferramenta de análise nos diversos campo da geografia física, torna-se fundamental que os usuários se dediquem à compreensão tanto do funcionamento do sistema a ser modelado quanto do modelo em si utilizado, seja em termos de sua estrutura interna ou das hipóteses ali envolvidas. Caso contrário, o usuário se tornará apenas um “piloto de software”, perdendo a oportunidade de transformar os bonitos mapas gerados em efetivas ferramentas de análise científica.

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Section: Parametrização Calibração Validação E Verificaçãounclassified

Modelagem em Geografia Física: Teoria, Potencialidades e Desafios

Fernandes

2016

EspacoAberto

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“…Even though simulations of the impact of climate change on water resources are highly uncertain [5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14], there is great confidence that African water resources systems are among the most vulnerable [15]. Uncertainties are particularly high when it comes to groundwater resources [16].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

High-Resolution, Integrated Hydrological Modeling of Climate Change Impacts on a Semi-Arid Urban Watershed in Niamey, Niger

Boko

Konaté

Yalo

et al. 2020

Water

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This study evaluates the impact of climate change on water resources in a large, semi-arid urban watershed located in the Niamey Republic of Niger, West Africa. The watershed was modeled using the fully integrated surface–subsurface HydroGeoSphere model at a high spatial resolution. Historical (1980–2005) and projected (2020–2050) climate scenarios, derived from the outputs of three regional climate models (RCMs) under the regional climate projection (RCP) 4.5 scenario, were statistically downscaled using the multiscale quantile mapping bias correction method. Results show that the bias correction method is optimum at daily and monthly scales, and increased RCM resolution does not improve the performance of the model. The three RCMs predicted increases of up to 1.6% in annual rainfall and of 1.58 °C for mean annual temperatures between the historical and projected periods. The durations of the minimum environmental flow (MEF) conditions, required to supply drinking and agricultural water, were found to be sensitive to changes in runoff resulting from climate change. MEF occurrences and durations are likely to be greater from 2020–2030, and then they will be reduced for the 2030–2050 statistical periods. All three RCMs consistently project a rise in groundwater table of more than 10 m in topographically high zones, where the groundwater table is deep, and an increase of 2 m in the shallow groundwater table.

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“…Even though the simulation of the impact of climate change on water resources is highly uncertain [5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14], there is a high confidence African water resources systems are among the most vulnerable to climate change [15]. Uncertainties are particularly high when it comes to groundwater resources [16].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

High-Resolution Integrated Hydrological Modeling of Climate Change Impacts on a Semi-arid Urban Watershed in Niamey, Niger

Boubacar¹,

Moussa²,

Yalo³

et al. 2019

Preprint

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This study evaluated the impact of climate change on water resources in a large semi-arid urban watershed located in Niamey Republic of Niger, West Africa. The watershed was modeled using the fully integrated surface-subsurface HydroGeoSpheremodel at a high spatial resolution. Historical (1980-2005) and projected (2020-2050) climate scenario derived from the outputs of three Regional Climate Models (RCM) under the RCP 4.5 scenario were statistically downscaled using the multiscale quantile mapping bias correction method. Results show that the bias correction method is optimum at daily and monthly scales, and increased RCM resolution does not improve the performance of the model. The three RCMs predict increases of up to 1.6% in annual rainfall and of 1.58°C for mean annual temperatures between the historical and projected periods. The durations of the Minimum Environmental Flow (MEF) conditions, required to supply drinking and agriculture water, were found to be sensitive to changes in runoff resulting from climate change. MEF occurrences and durations are likely to be greater for (2020-2030), and then they will be reduced for (2030-2050). All three RCMs consistently project a rise in groundwater table of more than 10 meters in topographically high zones where the groundwater table is deep and an increase of 2 meters in the shallow groundwater table.

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Climate change impacts on groundwater hydrology – where are the main uncertainties and can they be reduced?

Cited by 36 publications

References 58 publications

Modelagem em Geografia Física: Teoria, Potencialidades e Desafios

Modelagem em Geografia Física: Teoria, Potencialidades e Desafios

High-Resolution, Integrated Hydrological Modeling of Climate Change Impacts on a Semi-Arid Urban Watershed in Niamey, Niger

High-Resolution Integrated Hydrological Modeling of Climate Change Impacts on a Semi-arid Urban Watershed in Niamey, Niger

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