Climate change impacts on the aptitude area of forest species

Pirovani, Daiani Bernardo; Pezzopane, José Eduardo Macedo; Xavier, Alexandre Cândido; Pezzopane, José Ricardo Macedo; Júnior, Waldir Cintra de Jesus; Machuca, Miguel Ángel Herrera; Santos, Gleissy Mary Amaral Dino Alves dos; Silva, Samuel Ferreira da; Almeida, Samira Luns Hatum de; Peluzio, Telma Machado de Oliveira; Eugênio, Fernando Coelho; Moreira, Taís Rizzo; Alexandre, Rodrigo Sobreira; Santos, Alexandre Rosa dos

doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2018.08.002

Cited by 30 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…To date, several studies have highlighted that the impacts of climate change on agricultural and forest crops are highly complex and they are dependent on species, sowing dates, and may be site‐specific. Some studies have indicated that temperatures increases, as observed in South America, have a negative effect on crops, whereas CO 2 increases could be beneficial for changes in water availability (Cera et al ., 2017; Ramirez‐Cabral et al ., 2017; Pirovani et al ., 2018; Florêncio et al ., 2019; Elli et al ., 2020; Reis et al ., 2021). However, the level of uncertainty in the CO 2 results has been consistently high in all studies (Hao et al ., 2014; Ramirez‐Cabral et al ., 2017).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Changes in weather and climate patterns can have deleterious impacts on the environmental, economic and social sectors (Mendelsohn, 2008; Mideksa and Kallbekken, 2010; Darela Filho et al ., 2016; Hoegh‐Guldberg et al ., 2018; Shi et al ., 2018; Lapola et al ., 2019). Such impacts can be intensified by global warming, as analysed by several studies addressing changes in water availability (Gosling and Arnell, 2016; Chen et al ., 2017; Ul Hasson et al ., 2019), impacts on the agricultural and forest sectors (Santos et al ., 2017; Pirovani et al ., 2018; Tavares et al ., 2018; Elli et al ., 2020; Reis et al ., 2021) and livestock (Boone et al ., 2018), food security (Alfieri et al ., 2017; Allen et al ., 2018; Hoegh‐Guldberg et al ., 2018; IPCC, 2018; Rogelj et al ., 2018), species distribution (Pecl et al ., 2017; Da Silva et al ., 2019; Lapola et al ., 2020), energy generation and transmission (Jiang et al ., 2018; Gambhir et al ., 2019), in the intensity and frequency of extreme events (Alfieri et al ., 2017; Lewis et al ., 2019; Li et al ., 2019; Silva et al ., 2019; Avila‐Diaz et al ., 2020) and in human health (Shi et al ., 2018; Souza et al ., 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Projected impacts of 1.5 and 2°C global warming on temperature and precipitation patterns in South America

Torres

Benassi

Martins

et al. 2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Even if the thresholds set out in the Paris Agreement are reached, several impacts on the climate system are still inevitable, generating new vulnerabilities and amplifying those that already exist. In this sense, the objective of this work was to analyse the impact of a global warming of 1.5 and 2°C in the regional climatological patterns of the near‐surface air temperature and precipitation over South America, locating the most affected regions and briefly discussing the possible impacts to be faced on biodiversity and agriculture. The simulations and projections of 26 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 were used, forced in four different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. Projections for 1.5 or 2°C global warming indicate a local increase even higher, of at least +0.5°C, in almost the entire South American continent. Regarding precipitation, a similar pattern was also found between the two thresholds of global warming. GCMs project an increase of about 100 mm year−1 in the southern region of Brazil and in the northern portion of the Brazilian Northeast, in northern Argentina, Uruguay, and parts of Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela; while the areas between the south of Chile and Argentina and the extreme north of South America show reductions of up to 150 mm year−1. In addition, both the temperature and precipitation patterns were practically similar between the four analysed RCPs scenarios. The results presented in this study indicate that even if the Paris Agreement is very successful, South America will still suffer several impacts and will need to take effective adaptation measures in the short term. This may have pervasive implications for the biodiversity and genetic resource base of the subcontinent, as well as may impair agricultural productivity or incur into considerable adaptation costs for the sector.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected impacts of 1.5 and 2°C global warming on temperature and precipitation patterns in South America

Torres

Benassi

Martins

et al. 2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In temperatures over the ideal range, the plant is stressed, reducing its sunlight absorption and photosynthetic capacity (PEREIRA et al, 2018;BILA et al, 2012). Higher temperatures can reduce plant growth due to their negative effect of inactivating or accelerating enzyme systems that promote the coagulation and denaturation of proteins, resulting in plant tissue damage (PIROVANI et al, 2018). In this case, the region's average temperature varied between 25 and 29°C, reflecting directly in the periodic increment reduction in the hottest months between July and October.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

EFFECTS OF METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES ON Pinus caribaea GROWTH IN DIFFERENT AGES AT THE AMAZON REGION.

Lima

Gomes

Cunha

et al. 2022

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This study compares the impact of five meteorological variables on the diametric growth of Pinus caribaea var. hondurensis Barrett & Golfari in Vilhena, Rondônia. One thousand nine hundred sixty-eight trees were evaluated and classified at different ages: 600 trees were one year old; 600 trees were two years old; 768 trees were 13 years. The diameter measurement at the soil level (SL) was conducted in young stands between one and two years old. In the stand with 13 years old, the diameter was measured at 1.3 m (DCH). Using a Pressler borer, 50 increment cores were removed at DCH to measure the tree rings in LINTAB™ 6. The diametric growth was evaluated through the Periodic Increment (PI) for young stands and Current Annual Increment (CAI) for adult stands. The following variables were considered: average temperature (°C), precipitation (mm), solar radiation (Kj m-²), real evapotranspiration (mm), and maximum relative humidity (%). The Pearson Correlation Coefficient (r) proposed by Callegari-Jacques and the coefficient of variation (CV%) were used to establish the relationship between growth and meteorological variables. For young stands, the variables with higher positive correlation were real evapotranspiration and maximum relative humidity. However, the variable with a higher positive correlation in adult stands was average temperature, demonstrating a strong correlation until the sixth year of the species.

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“…It should be noted that investment projects in planted forests with T. ciliata reflect its economic viability, as pointed out by Dordel et al (2010). Biological assets have synergies between price estimates with environmental conditions and are therefore affected by several other factors, such as those studied by Pirovani et al (2018) and Nohro and Jayakumar (2020). It was explained how the decision of managerial flexibility could express the monetary reach of the value of investment projects in planted forests with T. ciliata, after the uncertainties were captured as volatility.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forest plantations with Toona ciliata: impacts of managerial flexibility on economic viability

2022

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Forest plantations with Toona ciliata are presented as economically viable thanks to the suitability of their wood for high-quality niche products. However, this study verifies whether investment projects in T. ciliata plantations are economically viable with the incorporation of managerial flexibility. We apply technical-economic coefficients from T. ciliata forest plantations over a 15-year planning horizon, considering the investment project as an underlying asset and the price of wood as the only source of uncertainty. Using the Monte Carlo method, we model uncertainty to obtain project volatility, so that, using the Real Option Approach, managerial flexibility for deferral, expansion and abandonment is added to the underlying assets. Based on the traditional economic valuation methodology, we obtained a static net present value of USD 5,075, which reflects the economic viability of the investment project in T. ciliata forest plantations. Due to the uncertainty arising from timber prices, project volatility was 131.7%. Afterwards, it was found that incorporating the deferral and abandonment options added a premium of USD 2,147 to the value of the project, redirecting it towards an expanded net present value of USD 7,223. Incorporation of the real deferral and abandonment options provides flexibility and support for the decision-making process in the management of T. ciliata forest plantations, resulting in a 42.3% increase in the value of the investment project.

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Climate change impacts on the aptitude area of forest species

Cited by 30 publications

References 46 publications

Projected impacts of 1.5 and 2°C global warming on temperature and precipitation patterns in South America

Projected impacts of 1.5 and 2°C global warming on temperature and precipitation patterns in South America

EFFECTS OF METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES ON Pinus caribaea GROWTH IN DIFFERENT AGES AT THE AMAZON REGION.

Forest plantations with Toona ciliata: impacts of managerial flexibility on economic viability

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