Climate change impacts on the conservation outlook of populations on the poleward periphery of species ranges: A case study of Canadian black‐tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus)

Abstract

Given climate change, species' climatically suitable habitats are increasingly expected to shift poleward. Some imperilled populations towards the poleward edge of their species' range might therefore conceivably benefit from climate change. Interactions between climate and population dynamics may be complex, however, with climate exerting effects both indirectly via influence over food availability and more directly, via effects on physiology and its implications for survival and reproduction. A thorough understanding of these interactions is critical for effective conservation management. We therefore examine the relationship between climate, survival and reproduction in Canadian black-tailed prairie dogs, a threatened keystone species in an imperilled ecosystem at the northern edge of the species' range. Our analyses considered 8 years of annual mark-recapture data (2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014) in relation to growing degree days, precipitation, drought status and winter severity, as well as year, sex, age and body mass. Survival was strongly influenced by the interaction of drought and body mass class, and winter temperature severity. Female reproductive status was associated with the interaction of growing degree days and growing season precipitation, with spring precipitation and with winter temperature severity. Results related to body mass suggested that climatic variables exerted their effects via regulation of food availability with potential linked effects of food quality, immunological and behavioural implications, and predation risk. Predictions of future increases in drought conditions in North America's grassland ecosystems have raised concerns for the outlook of Canadian black-tailed prairie dogs. Insights gained from the analyses, however, point to mitigating species management options targeted at decoupling the mechanisms by which climate exerts its negative influence. Our approach highlights the importance of understanding the interaction between climate and population dynamics in peripheralThis is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.

Enzootic maintenance of sylvatic plague in Canada's threatened black‐tailed prairie dog ecosystem

“…Effective conservation management, including plague mitigation, is therefore critical and could positively impact multiple species at risk associated with the BTPD ecosystem, which has been identified as a conservation priority for the Canadian mixed‐grass prairie (Parks Canada Agency 2016). Unlike BTPD populations studied to date, Canadian BTPD occur at the northern limit of the species' range, where winter severity and food availability limit the animals' seasonal activities, survival, and productivity (Gummer 2005, Stephens et al 2018). Canadian BTPD are confined to only 20 colonies in a small area (COSEWIC 2011) and separated from the nearest colony in Montana by approximately 20 km, and the nearest colony complex (i.e., groups of prairie dog colonies in close proximity; Biggins et al 1993) by over 60 km, which both exceed the species' recorded maximum dispersal distance (Garrett and Franklin 1988, Milne 2004).…”

“…Canadian BTPD are confined to only 20 colonies in a small area (COSEWIC 2011) and separated from the nearest colony in Montana by approximately 20 km, and the nearest colony complex (i.e., groups of prairie dog colonies in close proximity; Biggins et al 1993) by over 60 km, which both exceed the species' recorded maximum dispersal distance (Garrett and Franklin 1988, Milne 2004). As a peripheral population, they may be particularly susceptible to climate change (Stephens et al 2018). Climate change is more pronounced in northern ecosystems, and although ongoing warming may moderate severe winter temperatures, it is also anticipated to increase the frequency and severity of drought events (Bush and Lemmen 2019).…”

“…Climate change is more pronounced in northern ecosystems, and although ongoing warming may moderate severe winter temperatures, it is also anticipated to increase the frequency and severity of drought events (Bush and Lemmen 2019). This in turn is likely to lower local BTPD survival (Stephens et al 2018) and could facilitate plague outbreaks by altering interactions among hosts, vectors, and pathogens (Eads and Hoogland 2017). On Canadian BTPD colonies, these interactions are further complicated by the elsewhere apparently infrequent co‐occurrence of Richardson's ground squirrels ( Urocitellus richardsonii , hereafter RGS), whose role in the epidemiology of plague is poorly understood (Fitzgerald 1970, Anderson and Williams 1997, Cully and Williams 2001).…”

Identifying climate refugia and its potential impact on Tibetan brown bear (Ursus arctos pruinosus) in Sanjiangyuan National Park, China

“…More recent implementation of conservation measures in national parks by the Chinese government has resulted in better protection for its wildlife and their habitats (Dai, Li, et al, ). Yet, climate change remains of great concern, as it may negate current conservation efforts, including those set to protect Tibetan brown bears (Balzotti et al, ; Stephens et al, ; Su et al, ). Assessing climatically suitable habitat is a key step in developing proactive strategies that reduce the impacts of climate change on the brown bear.…”

“…The the Chinese government has resulted in better protection for its wildlife and their habitats ). Yet, climate change remains of great concern, as it may negate current conservation efforts, including those set to protect Tibetan brown bears (Balzotti et al, 2016;Stephens et al, 2017;Su et al, 2018).…”