Climate Change Impacts on the Future Distribution of Date Palms: A Modeling Exercise Using CLIMEX

Abstract

Climate is changing and, as a consequence, some areas that are climatically suitable for date palm (Phoenix dactylifera L.) cultivation at the present time will become unsuitable in the future. In contrast, some areas that are unsuitable under the current climate will become suitable in the future. Consequently, countries that are dependent on date fruit export will experience economic decline, while other countries’ economies could improve. Knowledge of the likely potential distribution of this economically important crop under current and future climate scenarios will be useful in planning better strategies to manage such issues. This study used CLIMEX to estimate potential date palm distribution under current and future climate models by using one emission scenario (A2) with two different global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR). The results indicate that in North Africa, many areas with a suitable climate for this species are projected to become climatically unsuitable by 2100. In North and South America, locations such as south-eastern Bolivia and northern Venezuela will become climatically more suitable. By 2070, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and western Iran are projected to have a reduction in climate suitability. The results indicate that cold and dry stresses will play an important role in date palm distribution in the future. These results can inform strategic planning by government and agricultural organizations by identifying new areas in which to cultivate this economically important crop in the future and those areas that will need greater attention due to becoming marginal regions for continued date palm cultivation.

Molecular variability and population structure of a core collection of date palm (Phoenix dactylifera L.) cultivars from Australia and the Middle East

“…Despite the long heritage of successful date palm establishment in Australia, the annual consumption of 5,000 to 7,000 tonnes depends almost exclusively on imports (Reilly et al, 2010). Many areas of Australia have long hot-dry summers with minimal rainfall that are suitable for date palm cultivation (Petherbridge, 1980;Shabani et al, 2012). Production is currently concentrated in central Australia, Western Australia, South Australia and in the Cunnamulla-Eulo areas of western Queensland (Kenna and Mansfield, 1997;McColl, 1992;Reilly et al, 2010;Shabani et al, 2012).…”

“…Furthermore, climate change can impact date production if growing conditions change, particularly temperature and precipitation (Shabani et al, 2012). While lower temperatures and higher rainfall might limit date production in some traditional areas, it is likely that date palm plantations could extend further south in South Australia and further east in south-eastern Australia.…”

Will climate change impact the potential distribution of a native vine (Merremia peltata) which is behaving invasively in the Pacific region?

“…This procedure is repeated until a satisfactory level of agreement between the model results and the distribution data is obtained with higher EI values coinciding with areas of recorded distribution (Shabani et al. 2012). The derivation of the parameter values are discussed below.…”

Future malaria spatial pattern based on the potential global warming impact in South and Southeast Asia

“…The modelled species will only become established if EI>0. EI values near 100 (maximum) are rare, as this condition is usually confined to species within an equatorial range, given that this value would imply ideal growth conditions throughout the year (Sutherst et al, 2007;Shabani et al, 2012;Khormi and Kumar, 2014). EI values near zero indicate a low probability of conditions conducive to population persistence in time and space.…”