Climate Change Impacts on Water Supply and Demand in Rheraya Watershed (Morocco), with Potential Adaptation Strategies

Abstract

Rheraya watershed already suffers from the impacts of climate variability and will be further affected by climate change. Severe water shortages and extremely fragile ecological conditions necessitate careful attention to water resources management. The aim of this study is to analyze Rheraya's future water situation under different scenarios of socio-economic development and climate change until 2100. The Water Evaluation and Planning System model (WEAP) has been applied to estimate the current water demands and the increased water demands resulting from climate change. WEAP was calibrated using meteorological and demand observations, then, updated with present-day and future climatic conditions using the Statistical Down-scaling Model with two projections (A2, B2) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Those projections show an increase in temperature of about 2-3 °C and a reduction in precipitation of 40-60% with respect to baseline. The results show that the pressure on Rheraya's water resources will increase, leading to greater competition for surface water, and that domestic, tourist, OPEN ACCESSWater 2012, 4 29 livestock and agricultural demands will not be met by the year 2100. The Results also demonstrate that the assessments of adaptation strategies proposed by decision makers are effective but not sustainable for the watershed.

Future of Water Supply and Demand in the Middle Drâa Valley, Morocco, under Climate and Land Use Change

“…The gained insights into the Middle Drâa valley's future water demand and supply show that the way farming is performed today in the oases of the Middle Drâa valley will not work out in future and, therefore, needs management solutions in order to preserve water and food resources [5,6,10,37,42].…”

“…Several studies about current and future water availability in arid and hyper-arid mountainous regions have shown that disparities of water disparities of water supply and water demand are increasing. Concomitance of declining renewable water resources in [1,5,10] and increasing water demand reveals a strong need for water resource management in Northern African arid regions [6,9,14,15].…”

“…Particularly, mountainous regions where altitudinal differences already cause high spatial variability of precipitation and evaporation losses [5,7] struggle with the additional pressure of climatic changes [8][9][10]. In the mountainous regions of Morocco where the elevation gradient ranges from semi-arid subtropical mountains to arid/hyper-arid pre-Saharan foothills water availability is at risk [6,[11][12][13].…”

“…Recently several WEAP models were applied to basins in the arid and mountainous areas of Morocco. WEAP proved to be helpful in showing the various interactions of water supply and demand [1,5,6,[8][9][10].…”

Water Supply Prediction for the Next 10 Years in Algeria: Risks and Challenges

“…The Mediterranean countries are among the most vulnerable by water stress [1], because of the high climatic variability. Decreases of the amount of precipitations and arising of the temperature change the water cycle and reducing the surface runoff and the aquifer recharge.…”