Climate change impacts on wind energy potential in the European domain with a focus on the Black Sea

Abstract

We may anticipate that climate change will bring changes to the intensity and variability of near surface winds, either through local effects or by altering the large-scale flow. The impact of climate change on European wind resources has been assessed using a single-modelensemble of the latest regional climate model from the Rossby Centre, RCA4. These simulations used data from five of the global climate models in the contemporary Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) as boundary conditions, and the results are publicly available under the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) project. Overall we find a consistent pattern of a decrease in the wind resources over the European domain under both the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, although there are some regions, principally North Africa and the Barents Sea, with projected increases in wind resources. The pattern of change is both robust across the choice of scenario, and persistent: there is a very similar pattern of change found in the latter part of the 21 st century as in the earlier. A case study was chosen to assess the potential for offshore wind-farms in the Black Sea region. We developed a realistic methodology for extrapolating near-surface wind speeds up to hub-height using a time-varying roughness length, and determined the extractable wind power at hub-height using a realistic model of contemporary wind-turbine energy production. We demonstrate that, unlike much of the Mediterranean basin, there is no robust pattern of a negative climate change impact on wind resources in the studied regions of the Black Sea. Furthermore, the seasonality of wind resources, with a strong peak in the winter, matches well to the seasonality of energy-demand in the region, making offshore wind-farms in the Black Sea region a viable source of energy for neighbouring countries.

Projected changes in wind speed and its energy potential in China using a high‐resolution regional climate model

“…In terms of installed generating capacity, fastest growth and technological maturity, only installed capacity by hydropower exceeds that of wind power generation . With the increasing demand for renewable energy sources in the future, we must have a clear understanding of accessible wind resources and the susceptibility of these resources to climate change …”

“…Nowadays, increasing attention has been paid on the assessment of the wind energy potential around the world, such as North America, Europe, Africa and East Asia . However, simulation and projection of wind speed are very difficult because of its random and intermittent nature.…”

“…3 With the increasing demand for renewable energy sources in the future, we must have a clear understanding of accessible wind resources and the susceptibility of these resources to climate change. 4 China is rich in onshore and offshore wind resources, mainly distributed in the northeast, north, northwest and east coastal areas. According to the latest national wind resource evaluation results, China's technical exploitation amounts of wind resources with an 80 m height onshore wind power density of over 150 and over 200 W/m 2 are 10.2 and 7.5 TW, respectively.…”

An overview of offshore wind energy resources in Europe under present and future climate

“…The climate change impact on European wind resources was also assessed with a single‐model ensemble using the RCA4 RCM driven by five GCMs from the CMIP5 project within the framework of the CORDEX project . Future projections were carried out under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for two time periods, 2021–2050 and 2061–2090.…”

“…The climate change impact on European wind resources was also assessed with a single-model ensemble using the RCA4 RCM driven by five GCMs from the CMIP5 project within the framework of the CORDEX project. 119 Future projections were carried out under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for two time periods, 2021-2050 and 2061-2090. An overall decrease in wind resources was detected over the European domain, although some regions saw projected increases, such as the Baltic Sea, the Barents Sea, and the Aegean Sea.…”