Climate, conflict and internal migration in Colombia

Abstract

Robust empirical evidence on the potential causal linkages between environmental change, conflict and migration is scarce. We evaluate this relationship in the context of internal migration in Colombia for the period from 2000 to 2005. Using municipalitylevel data in a gravity model that considers the issue of endogenous selection regarding both the outbreak of conflicts and the existence of non-zero migration flows, we establish an empirical causal link between droughts, conflict and migration. Our results show a positive relationship between the severity of droughts and the likelihood of conflicts, as well as between conflicts and human mobility, suggesting an indirect effect of climate on internal migration in Colombia.