Climate Dangers and Atoll Countries

Barnett, Jon; Adger, W. Neil

doi:10.1023/b:clim.0000004559.08755.88

Cited by 373 publications

(230 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…This is consistent with the results of Yohe and Tol (2002) and Tol and Yohe (2006). Barnett and Adger (2003) discussed the role of social-ecological thresholds in triggering island abandonment, and an empirical analysis of an historic island abandonment in the Chesapeake Bay by Gibbons and Nicholls (2006) supports the validity of this concept. The different results for the global model and the case studies suggest that the notion of socialecological thresholds may have widespread value when thinking about abrupt climate change.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

Global estimates of the impact of a collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet: an application of FUND

2008

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The threat of an abrupt and extreme rise in sea level is widely discussed in the media, but little understood in practise, especially the likely impacts of such a rise including a potential adaptation response. This paper explores for the first time the global impacts of extreme sea-level rise, triggered by a hypothetical collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). As the potential contributions remain uncertain, a wide range of scenarios are explored: WAIS contributions to sea-level rise of between 0.5 and 5 m/century. Together with other business-as-usual sea-level contributions, in the worst case this gives an approximately 6-m rise of global-mean sea level from 2030 to 2130. Global exposure to extreme sea-level rise is significant: it is estimated that roughly 400 million people (or about 8% of global population) are threatened by a 5-m rise in sea level, just based on 1995 data. The coastal module within the Climate Framework for Uncertainty, Negotiation and Distribution (FUND) model is tuned with global data on coastal zone characteristics concerning population, land areas and land use, and then used for impact analysis under the extreme sea-level rise scenarios. The model considers the interaction of (dry)land loss, wetland loss, protection costs and human displacement, assuming perfect adaptation based on cost-benefit analysis. Unlike earlier analyses, response costs are represented in a non- linear manner, including a sensitivity analysis based on response costs. It is found that much of the world's coast would be abandoned given these extreme scenarios, although according to the global model, significant lengths of the world's coast are worth defending even in the most extreme case. This suggests that actual population displacement would be a small fraction of the potential population displacement, and is consistent with the present distribution of coastal population, which is heavily concentrated in specific areas. Hence, a partial defence can protect most of the world's coastal population. However, protection costs rise substantially diverting large amounts of investment from other sectors, and large areas of (dry)land and coastal wetlands are still predicted to be lost. Detailed case studies of the WAIS collapse in the Netherlands, Thames Estuary and the Rhone delta suggest greater abandonment than shown by the global model, probably because the model assumes perfect implementation of coastal protection and does not account for negative feedbacks when implementation is imperfect. The significant impacts found in the global model together with the potential for greater impacts as found in the detailed case studies shows that the response to abrupt sea-level rise is worthy of further research.Climatic Change (2008) 91:171-191 DOI 10.1007/s10584-008-9424-

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

Global estimates of the impact of a collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet: an application of FUND

2008

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“…For example, rapid sea-level and temperature rises could present critical thresholds beyond which some systems, such as mangrove and coral reef ecosystems, may not be able to adapt to changing climate conditions without radically altering their functional state and system integrity. In the context of sustainable development, a limit of notable concern for developing country policy-makers is the point at which the ecosystems upon which communities depend will no longer be able to support and sustain livelihoods (Barnett and Adger, 2003).…”

Section: What Are the Barriers To Adaptation?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Overcoming Social Barriers to Adaptation

Jones

2015

SSRN Journal

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“…Already vulnerable due to poverty, lack of resources and relative isolation, citizens of atoll countries are among those most at risk of climate-change-induced harm. 18 Atoll countries are frequently poor 19 and lack the resources which may enable them to adapt to climate change. Further, with a mean height above sea-level of around 2 m, 20 any rise in sea-level poses signifi cant risk of harm.…”

Section: The Global Requirementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Why Bioethics Must Be Global

Widdows West-Oram

2013

Global Health and International Community

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Climate Dangers and Atoll Countries

Cited by 373 publications

References 42 publications

Global estimates of the impact of a collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet: an application of FUND

Global estimates of the impact of a collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet: an application of FUND

Overcoming Social Barriers to Adaptation

Why Bioethics Must Be Global

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