Climate Defined but Not Soil-restricted: The Distribution of a Neotropical tree through Space and Time

Abstract

AimsBrosimum rubescens, a tree species with a Neotropical distribution, can achieve local monodominance in Southern Amazonia forests. Understanding how and why this species varies across space and time is important because the monodominance of some species alters ecosystems complexity. Here we evaluate the fundamental ecological niche of B. rubescens by species distribution models (SDM), combining predictive environmental variables with occurrence points. We specifically aim to 1) determine how the spatial distribution patterns of B. rubescens vary with different environmental predictive variables, and 2) evaluate the temporal and spatial persistence of B. rubescens in the Neotropics. MethodsTo generate the SDMs, the predictive environmental variables were incorporated as main components of climatic, hydric and soil variables. ResultsAll algorithms show higher performance in spatial predictions for hydric variables and for the combination of climatic, hydric and edaphic variables. We identified that the potential niches of B. rubescens seem to be defined by climatic fluctuations, with the edaphic conditions being predictive variables that are not restrictive of their presence on the evaluated spatial scale. From the LMG (Last Glacial Maximum) to the present, the species seems to have increased its spatial amplitude; however, from the present to the future, predictions suggest that B. rubescens will experience a considerable loss of its range. ConclusionsOur findings show the independent and combined effects of different environmental variables, allowing us to identify which limit or facilitate the spatial distribution of B. rubescens. We corroborate the spatial persistence and geographical fidelity of the species' spatial patterns over time.