Climate patterns in north central China during the last 1800 yr and their possible driving force

Tan, Liangcheng; Cai, Yanjun; An, Zhisheng; Long, Yi; Zhang, Haiwei; Qin, Shijun

doi:10.5194/cp-7-685-2011

Cited by 87 publications

(79 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…5b; Chen et al, 2015). Generally, there were pronounced changes in warm and humid/cool and dry climatic patterns both on millennial and centennial scales in the Gonghai Lake region, consistent with a previous synthesis study (Tan et al, 2011b). However, this pattern is not evident during the last 300 years (Fig.…”

Section: Intra-regional Temperature Comparisonsupporting

confidence: 72%

A chironomid-based record of temperature variability during the past 4000 years in northern China and its possible societal implications

et al. 2018

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Abstract. Long-term, high-resolution temperature records which combine an unambiguous proxy and precise dating are rare in China. In addition, the societal implications of past temperature change on a regional scale have not been sufficiently assessed. Here, based on the modern relationship between chironomids and temperature, we use fossil chironomid assemblages in a precisely dated sediment core from Gonghai Lake to explore temperature variability during the past 4000 years in northern China. Subsequently, we address the possible regional societal implications of temperature change through a statistical analysis of the occurrence of wars. Our results show the following. (1) The mean annual temperature (TANN) was relatively high during 4000-2700 cal yr BP, decreased gradually during 2700-1270 cal yr BP and then fluctuated during the last 1270 years. (2) A cold event in the Period of Disunity, the Sui-Tang Warm Period (STWP), the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and the Little Ice Age (LIA) can all be recognized in the paleotemperature record, as well as in many other temperature reconstructions in China. This suggests that our chironomidinferred temperature record for the Gonghai Lake region is representative. (3) Local wars in Shanxi Province, documented in the historical literature during the past 2700 years, are statistically significantly correlated with changes in temperature, and the relationship is a good example of the potential societal implications of temperature change on a regional scale.

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Section: Intra-regional Temperature Comparisonsupporting

confidence: 72%

A chironomid-based record of temperature variability during the past 4000 years in northern China and its possible societal implications

et al. 2018

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“…However, over typical EASM areas, climate during the LIA has been reported as relatively dry (e.g., Zhang et al, 2003;Tan et al, 2011), which also contrasts with the hydroclimatic pattern over ISM areas. We suspect that changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and changes in land-sea thermal contrasts may have played important roles in generating such hydroclimatic differences between ISM and EASM areas.…”

Section: Hydrological Contrasts Between Ism and Easm Areasmentioning

confidence: 90%

Late Holocene Indian Summer Monsoon Variations Recorded at Lake Erhai, Southwestern China

Xiao-hong

Lan

et al. 2015

Quat. res.

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a b s t r a c tIn this study we report changes in Indian summer monsoon (ISM) intensity during the past~3500 yr inferred from proxy indices at Lake Erhai, southwestern China. Both the pollen concentrations and other proxy indices, including sediment grain size, total organic carbon contents (TOC), and elemental contents (e.g., Fe, Al), clearly indicate a long term decreasing trend in ISM intensity over the late Holocene. During the period from approximately AD 750 to AD 1200, pollen concentrations of conifer and broadleaf trees, and herbs reached the lowest levels over the past~3500 yr; while the pollen percentages of both herbs and broadleaf trees increased, suggesting a significant medieval drought. The grain size, TOC, and elemental contents also support an arid climate during the medieval period. The Little Ice Age (LIA) at Lake Erhai was characterized as cold and wet. The medieval and LIA climatic patterns at Lake Erhai were similar to those over most of the ISM areas, but anti-phase with those over East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) areas. We suspect that sea surface temperature variations in the Indo-Pacific oceans and the related land-sea thermal contrasts may be responsible for such hydroclimatic differences between EASM and ISM areas.

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“…In these studies, the collapse of the Ming dynasty (1368-1644) in China, which was overthrown by a peasant uprising and replaced by the Qing dynasty (1644-1911, rising in Manchuria, northeastern China) as a consequence of military collapse, is usually provided as a representative case related to climate change, because the fall of the Ming dynasty coincided with drought, famine and rebellion in northern and central China (Tan et al 2011). According to other researchers, the collapse also coincided with increased desertification in northern China (Wang et al 2010) and weakening of the Asian summer monsoon (Zhang PZ et al 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

How climate change impacted the collapse of the Ming dynasty

et al. 2014

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Based on the reconstructed temperatures, precipitation changes, and occurrences of extreme climate events, together with historical records on fiscal deterioration, food crises, and the frequencies of popular unrest, rebellions and wars, we identified three principal ways in which climate change contributed to the collapse in the Ming dynasty. Firstly, cooling, aridification, and desertification during a cold period destroyed the military farm system, which was the main supply system for the provisioning of government troops on the northern frontiers; these impacts increased the military expenditure from 64 % of total government expenditure in 1548-1569 to 76 % in 1570-1589 and thus aggravated the national fiscal crisis that occurred during the late Ming dynasty. Secondly, climate deterioration (e.g., cooling, aridification, and an increase in the frequencies of frost-and drought-related disasters, etc.) led to a 20-50 % reduction in the per capita production of raw grain in most areas of China, which resulted in widespread food crises and exacerbated the vulnerability of social structures during the last several decades of the Ming dynasty. Thirdly, the severe droughts occurring in 1627-1643 were a key trigger to the peasantry uprising. These droughts also played a significant role to promote the peasantry uprising, especially reviving the peasantry troops by recruitment of famine victims when they nearly perished in 1633 and 1638, and severely disrupting the food supply for the government troops, resulting in the final defeat of the government troops by the peasantry troops. This study contributes to an understanding of the climate-related mechanisms Climatic Change behind the collapse of the Ming dynasty, and provides a historical case study that enhances our understanding of the nature of interactions between climate change and social vulnerability.

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Climate patterns in north central China during the last 1800 yr and their possible driving force

Cited by 87 publications

References 49 publications

A chironomid-based record of temperature variability during the past 4000 years in northern China and its possible societal implications

A chironomid-based record of temperature variability during the past 4000 years in northern China and its possible societal implications

Late Holocene Indian Summer Monsoon Variations Recorded at Lake Erhai, Southwestern China

How climate change impacted the collapse of the Ming dynasty

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