Climate response to the Samalas volcanic eruption in 1257 revealed by proxy records

Guillet, Sèbastien; Corona, Christophe; Stoffel, Markus; Khodri, Myriam; Lavigne, Franck; Ortega, Pablo; Eckert, Nicolas; Sielenou, Pascal Dkengne; Daux, Valérie; Churakova, Olga V.; Davi, Nicole; Édouard, Jean-Louis; Zhang, Yong; Luckman, Brian H.; Myglan, Vladimir S.; Guiot, Joël; Beniston, Martin; Masson‐Delmotte, Valérie; Oppenheimer, Clive

doi:10.1038/ngeo2875

Cited by 150 publications

(173 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…Such features have also been identified for the largest volcanic eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere (e.g. Guillet et al, 2017). Local negative anomalies following major eruptions may arise from non-temperature drivers of water stable isotope records and be artefacts of inconsistencies in chronologies; they may also reflect an actual regional cooling.…”

Section: Response To Volcanic Forcingmentioning

confidence: 93%

Antarctic climate variability on regional and continental scales over the last 2000 years

et al. 2017

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Abstract. Climate trends in the Antarctic region remain poorly characterized, owing to the brevity and scarcity of direct climate observations and the large magnitude of interannual to decadal-scale climate variability. Here, within the framework of the PAGES Antarctica2k working group, we build an enlarged database of ice core water stable isotope records from Antarctica, consisting of 112 records. We produce both unweighted and weighted isotopic (δ18O) composites and temperature reconstructions since 0 CE, binned at 5- and 10-year resolution, for seven climatically distinct regions covering the Antarctic continent. Following earlier work of the Antarctica2k working group, we also produce composites and reconstructions for the broader regions of East Antarctica, West Antarctica and the whole continent. We use three methods for our temperature reconstructions: (i) a temperature scaling based on the δ18O–temperature relationship output from an ECHAM5-wiso model simulation nudged to ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalyses from 1979 to 2013, and adjusted for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet region to borehole temperature data, (ii) a temperature scaling of the isotopic normalized anomalies to the variance of the regional reanalysis temperature and (iii) a composite-plus-scaling approach used in a previous continent-scale reconstruction of Antarctic temperature since 1 CE but applied to the new Antarctic ice core database. Our new reconstructions confirm a significant cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE across all Antarctic regions where records extend back into the 1st millennium, with the exception of the Wilkes Land coast and Weddell Sea coast regions. Within this long-term cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE, we find that the warmest period occurs between 300 and 1000 CE, and the coldest interval occurs from 1200 to 1900 CE. Since 1900 CE, significant warming trends are identified for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, the Dronning Maud Land coast and the Antarctic Peninsula regions, and these trends are robust across the distribution of records that contribute to the unweighted isotopic composites and also significant in the weighted temperature reconstructions. Only for the Antarctic Peninsula is this most recent century-scale trend unusual in the context of natural variability over the last 2000 years. However, projected warming of the Antarctic continent during the 21st century may soon see significant and unusual warming develop across other parts of the Antarctic continent. The extended Antarctica2k ice core isotope database developed by this working group opens up many avenues for developing a deeper understanding of the response of Antarctic climate to natural and anthropogenic climate forcings. The first long-term quantification of regional climate in Antarctica presented herein is a basis for data–model comparison and assessments of past, present and future driving factors of Antarctic climate.

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Section: Response To Volcanic Forcingmentioning

confidence: 93%

Antarctic climate variability on regional and continental scales over the last 2000 years

et al. 2017

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“…That triggered a positive feedback in which more ice led to more cooling, which led to more ice, more cooling, and so on. Changes in oceanic circulation may have reinforced this trend to sustain a long‐term drop in average annual temperatures (Guillet et al, ; Lehner, Born, Raible, & Stocker, )…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and society in the 15th to 18th centuries

Degroot

2018

WIREs Climate Change

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Scholars in many disciplines have used diverse methods and sources to establish that, between the 15th and 18th centuries, a “Little Ice Age” considerably cooled Earth's climate. In four particularly chilly periods—the Spörer Minimum, Grindelwald Fluctuation, Maunder Minimum, and Dalton Minimum—falling temperatures both caused and reflected changes in atmospheric circulation that altered regional patterns of precipitation. Many scholars have argued that weather in these cold periods provoked or worsened regional food shortages, famines, rebellions, wars, and outbreaks of epidemic disease, in ways that may have contributed to mass mortality across the early modern world. More recently, some scholars have contrasted the fates of societies or communities that were “vulnerable” to climate change with those that were “resilient” or even consciously or unconsciously adaptive in the face of the Little Ice Age. Overall, research that connects climatic and social histories has suggested that human decisions, political structures, economic arrangements, institutions, and cultures either magnified or mitigated the impact of climate change on the societies of the early modern world. This article is categorized under: Climate, History, Society, Culture > Major Historical Eras

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“…The reconstructed temperature series also have significant correlations with the Northern Hemisphere temperatures (NHT; Esper et al ., ; Huang, ; Guillet et al ., ; Figure c–e). After 20‐year low‐pass filter, the LLREA temperature change is almost simultaneous with the NHT variation at the middle frequency, as various features are in common, especially before 1900 (Figure S6c–e).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The reconstructed NHT of Guillet et al . () has less significant correlation with the LLREA series though because it is summer temperature reconstruction.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temperature variation at the low‐latitude regions of East Asia recorded by tree rings during the past six centuries

Liu

Sun

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The understanding of past millennium climate change is very important. Due to the lack of continuously annual resolution records, the temperature characteristics in the low‐latitude regions of East Asia (LLREA) during past several centuries are still unknown. Using tree‐ring width chronology from Taiwan, an island located in the western Pacific region and in southeastern China, February–October mean temperature from 1380 to 2007 AD was reconstructed. Spatial correlation analysis indicated that the reconstructed temperature could represent the sea‐land temperature change in LLREA. During the past six centuries, both the warmest intervals and the largest variability of temperature appeared in the twentieth century. This is probably related to human activities. Temperature in LLREA provided good contrast with temperature changes in the Tibet Plateau and elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere. The LLREA entered into the Little Ice Age around the year of 1450, approximately 100 years earlier than the Tibet Plateau. The 10‐year cycle contained in the reconstructed temperature is close to the 11‐year period of solar activity, which revealed there was a certain relationship between them. The temperature in LLREA significantly correlated with solar activity at the decadal to centennial scales. The strong/weak solar irradiance corresponded to the great/small temperature variability.

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Climate response to the Samalas volcanic eruption in 1257 revealed by proxy records

Abstract: International audienc

Cited by 150 publications

References 37 publications

Antarctic climate variability on regional and continental scales over the last 2000 years

Antarctic climate variability on regional and continental scales over the last 2000 years

Climate change and society in the 15th to 18th centuries

Temperature variation at the low‐latitude regions of East Asia recorded by tree rings during the past six centuries

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