Climate risk services for cereal farming

Gobin, Anne; Addimando, Nicoletta; Ramshorn, Christoph; Gutbrod, Karl

doi:10.5194/asr-18-21-2021

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…Compared with winter wheat, the flowering date of maize occurs later in the year, when the frequency and intensity of (combined) heat and drought are higher [2]. The occurrence of (combined) heat and drought stress has affected cereal crops across Flanders and is projected to increase in the near future [19,33]. The sensitivity of maize to drought and heat stress was also reported in previous studies.…”

Section: Model Typementioning

confidence: 54%

“…Agronomy 2023, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 11 of 27 by 2030-2050 [6,33]. In line with previous research (Tables 1-3), four different indicators were defined.…”

Section: (Agro-)meteorological Indicatorsmentioning

confidence: 86%

“…Only indicators related to high temperature, water deficit and excess were analyzed, as the occurrence frequency and intensity of these weather events will most likely increase by 2030-2050 [6,33]. In line with previous research (Tables 1-3), four different indicators were defined.…”

Section: (Agro-)meteorological Indicatorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Adverse Weather Impacts on Winter Wheat, Maize and Potato Yield Gaps in northern Belgium

Vanongeval

Gobin

2023

Agronomy

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Adverse weather conditions greatly reduce crop yields, leading to economic losses and lower food availability. The characterization of adverse weather and the quantification of their potential impact on arable farming is necessary to advise farmers on feasible and effective adaptation strategies and to support decision making in the agriculture sector. This research aims to analyze the impact of adverse weather on the yield of winter wheat, grain maize and late potato using a yield gap approach. A time-series analysis was performed to identify the relationship between (agro-)meteorological indicators and crop yields and yield gaps in Flanders (northern Belgium) based on 10 years of field trial and weather data. Indicators were calculated for different crop growth stages and multiple soils. Indicators related to high temperature, water deficit and water excess were analyzed, as the occurrence frequency and intensity of these weather events will most likely increase by 2030–2050. The concept of “yield gap” was used to analyze the effects of adverse weather in relation to other yield-reducing factors such as suboptimal management practices. Winter wheat preferred higher temperatures during grain filling and was negatively affected by wet conditions throughout the growing season. Maize was especially vulnerable to drought throughout the growing season. Potato was more affected by heat and drought stress during tuber bulking and by waterlogging during the early growth stages. The impact of adverse weather on crop yield was influenced by soil type, and optimal management practices mitigated the impact of adverse weather.

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Section: Model Typementioning

confidence: 54%

“…Agronomy 2023, 13, x FOR PEER REVIEW 11 of 27 by 2030-2050 [6,33]. In line with previous research (Tables 1-3), four different indicators were defined.…”

Section: (Agro-)meteorological Indicatorsmentioning

confidence: 86%

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Adverse Weather Impacts on Winter Wheat, Maize and Potato Yield Gaps in northern Belgium

Vanongeval

Gobin

2023

Agronomy

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Spatio-temporal variability of dry and wet spells and their influence on crop yields

Gobin

Vyver

2021

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology

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Evaluation of Climate Suitability for Maize Production in Poland under Climate Change

Król-Badziak,

Kozyra,

Rozakis

2024

Sustainability

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Climatic conditions are the main factor influencing the suitability of agricultural land for crop production. Therefore, the evaluation of climate change impact on crop suitability using the best possible methods and data is needed for successful agricultural climate change adaptation. This study presents the application of a multi-criteria evaluation approach to assess climate suitability for maize production in Poland, for a baseline period (BL, 1981–2010) and two future periods 2041–2070 (2050s) and 2071–2100 (2080s) under two RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The analyses incorporated expert knowledge using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) into the evaluation of criteria weights. The results showed that maturity and frost stress were the most limiting factors in assessing the climatic suitability of maize cultivation in Poland, with 30% and 11% of Poland classified as marginally suitable or not suitable for maize cultivation, respectively. In the future climate, the area limited by maturity and frost stress factors is projected to decrease, while the area of water stress and heat stress is projected to increase. For 2050 climate projections, water stress limitation areas occupy 7% and 8% of Poland for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, while for 2080 projections, the same areas occupy 12% and 32% of the country, respectively. By 2080, heat stress will become a limiting factor for maize cultivation; according to our analysis, 3% of the Polish area under RCP8.5 will be marginally suitable for maize cultivation because of heat stress. The overall analyses showed that most of Poland in the BL climate is in the high suitability class (62%) and 38% is moderately suitable for maize cultivation. This situation will improves until 2050, but will worsen in the 2080s under the RCP8.5 scenario. Under RCP8.5, by the end of the century (2080s), the highly suitable area will decrease to 47% and the moderately suitable area will increase to 53%.

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Climate risk services for cereal farming

Cited by 3 publications

References 17 publications

Adverse Weather Impacts on Winter Wheat, Maize and Potato Yield Gaps in northern Belgium

Adverse Weather Impacts on Winter Wheat, Maize and Potato Yield Gaps in northern Belgium

Spatio-temporal variability of dry and wet spells and their influence on crop yields

Evaluation of Climate Suitability for Maize Production in Poland under Climate Change

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