Climate Shocks and Responses in Karnali-Mahakali Basins, Western Nepal

Abstract

The Himalayas are highly susceptible to the impacts of climate change, as it consequently increases the vulnerability of downstream communities, livelihoods and ecosystems. Western Nepal currently holds significant potential as multiple opportunities for water development within the country are underway. However, it is also identified as one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change, with both an increase in the occurrence of natural disasters and exacerbated severity and impacts levels. Regional climate model (RCM) projections indicate warmer weather with higher variability in rainfall for this region. This paper combines bio-physical and social approaches to further study and understand the current climate shocks and responses present in Western Nepal. Data was collected from 3660 households across 122 primary sampling units across the Karnali, Mahakali and Mohana River basins along with focus group discussions, which provided a rich understanding of the currently perceived climatic shocks and related events. Further analysis of climatology was carried out through nine indices of precipitation and temperature that were found to be relevant to the discussed climate shocks. Results show that 79% of households reported experiencing at least one type of climate shock in the five-year period and the most common occurrence was droughts, which is also supported by the climate data. Disaggregated results show that perception varies with the region and among the basins. Analysis of climatic trends further show that irregular weather is most common in the hill region, although average reported frequency of irregular weather is higher in the mountain. Further analysis into the severity and response to climatic shocks suggest an imminent need for better adaptation strategies. This study’s results show that a vast majority of respondents lack proper access to knowledge and that successful adaptation strategies must be adapted to specific regions to meet communities’ local needs.

Impact of Climate Variability on Crop Yield in Kalahandi, Bolangir, and Koraput Districts of Odisha, India

“…Additionally, understanding the regional manifestations of recent climate trends can help us to prepare for future climatic effects on agricultural productivity. Among the various parameters of climatic variability [29], rainfall [30] and temperature [31,32] play the most determining roles [33,34] in defining agricultural conditions. This is also true for the districts being studied here.…”

Determinants of Poverty, Self-Reported Shocks, and Coping Strategies: Evidence from Rural Nepal

“…Likewise, non-climatic shocks caused by illness, wildlife damage, accident, theft, and fraud also befall mostly on vulnerable sections of the society. So far as the climatic hazards are concerned, Himalayan regions are now experiencing extreme events more frequently than other regions [3]. Consequently, thousands of marginalized people are killed and many more displaced, causing losses worth billions of dollars in lives and property [4].…”

Drought assessment on barley and millet production in Karnali Province, Nepal

“…Furthermore, Nath et al (2017) mentioned an increase in temperature causes drying of agricultural land and decreases overall cereal yield. Though the drought impact depends on the degree of vulnerability of communities, agriculturally dependent farmers are more susceptible to drought (Pandey et al, 2019). In addition to this, the impact is high to the agricultural dependent countries where the agri-system is based on rain-fed (FAO, 2014).…”

“…Also, significant warming over the country is observed in recent years (Karki et al, 2020;Khatiwada et al, 2016). Drought events can affect people in any way, which could be difficult to tackle in less developed regions like western Nepal (Adhikari, 2018;Pandey et al, 2019). Due to inadequate and untimely rainfall, most of the Khet (shallow farm lands) might have left fallow land, decreased productivity (Shrestha et al, 2000), and also changed the replenishment of water sources nearby (Paudel & Duex, 2016).…”

“…Moreover, drought intensity has severe impacts on Nepal's mountain communities, posing a serious threat to agriculture, crop failure, and food production (GoN, 2009;Panthi et al, 2016). Therefore, correct characterization of drought and its effect in different areas and levels need to be assessed for applying appropriate and timely response to the droughts (Pandey et al, 2019) with respect to the capacity, community, and technology (Andersson et al, 2020;Ghimire et al, 2010). But due to the lack of drought assessment (Manning & Clayton, 2018), it has created difficulties in resource conservation and adaptation strategies in geologically challenging terrain.…”