Climate Variability and Adaptation Strategies in a Pastoralist Area of the Eastern Bale Zone: The Case of Sawena District, Ethiopia

Abstract

This study was conducted in Sawena district, located in the Eastern Bale Zone of Ethiopia, with the aim of analyzing climate variability and identifying adaptation strategies. Secondary data covering the period from 1984 to 2023 were utilized, along with structured and unstructured questionnaires. Primary data were gathered from 350 pastoralist households across six kebeles through a household survey. This study used the Mann–Kendall test, Sen’s slope estimator, the coefficient of variation, descriptive statistics, and a multivariate probit model to analyze climate variability and adaptation strategies. The Mann–Kendall test, Sen’s slope estimator, and coefficient of variation analysis results showed significant rainfall increases in September, October, and November, with high winter variability and an upward autumn trend. Temperature analysis revealed consistent warming, with the greatest increases in September (0.049 °C/year) and summer (0.038 °C/year), and an annual mean rise of 0.034 °C per year, indicating climate shifts affecting pastoralist and agro-pastoral livelihood strategies and water resources that lead the area toward vulnerability. The descriptive results indicated that pastoralist households have adopted various adaptation strategies: 45.1% participate in seasonal livestock migration, 26.3% rely on productive safety net programs, 19% pursue livelihood diversification, and 9.7% engage in agroforestry. Multivariate analysis indicates that education, age, credit access, livestock ownership, asset value, and media exposure influence these strategies. The findings highlight the importance of policies to enhance climate resilience through diversification, sustainable land management, and improved access to resources like credit and markets, alongside strengthened education and targeted extension services.