Climate variability and international migration: The importance of the agricultural linkage

Cai, Ruohong; Feng, Shuaizhang; Oppenheimer, Michael; Pytlíková, Mariola

doi:10.1016/j.jeem.2016.06.005

Cited by 248 publications

(207 citation statements)

References 43 publications

(62 reference statements)

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“…They find a positive impact of warming trends on the probability to emigrate in middle-income countries, while in poor countries a negative pattern emerges due to liquidity constraints. That weather-induced migration is particularly robust in countries where the agricultural share in value added is more important is shown in both [10,54]. Their contribution is relevant from a conceptual point of view because in their model the empirical specification is well-motivated by theoretical underpinnings.…”

Section: Macro-studies At the Country Levelmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…Macro-studies can be distinguished between those based on gravity-like (bilateral) migration equations, as in [10,80], and those exploiting panel data econometrics, as in [54,96].…”

Section: Macro-studies At the Country Levelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…An important contribution that carefully investigates the nexus between climate change, agriculture, and migration, is provided by [10]. Starting from the consideration that little is known about the mechanisms through which climate change affects migration, the authors exploit a large bilateral migration dataset to estimate a gravity migration equation.…”

Section: Macro-studies At the Country Levelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…. ]" [10] (p. 142). The reason for this disclaimer is that their paper does not attempt any "structural" estimate of the way in which weather affects agriculture, hence migration, but confines itself to establishing robust, though only indirect, associations between such phenomena.…”

Section: Macro-studies At the Country Levelmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate Change, Agriculture and Migration: A Survey

2018

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This paper proposes a selective review of the classical economics-based literature on climate change and migration, focusing on the extent to which agriculture might be considered a key mediating channel linking climate change to migration. Overall, climate change is expected to have large and negative effects on the global economy. These effects are even more evident whenever the economic sector considered is the agricultural one, particularly in developing countries. Hence, migration can be viewed as a specific form of adaptation implemented by individuals and households, enabling them to cope, among other things, with weather-induced risk. We show that the importance of agriculture emerges from both plenty of micro-level country studies and relatively few macro-level analyses using cross-sectional data over longer time periods. Thus, policy actions targeted to sustainable agriculture and rural development can both help tackle the challenges posed by climate change and create opportunities in the face of growing migration issues. However, we also stress that much of the current evidence is based on statistical associations that have nothing to do with causal inferences. This calls for the use of a more structural approach and more sophisticated research designs, enabling the researchers to better discriminate among different mechanisms concurrently at work. In addition, further research should be addressed to the role played by food security, a complex dimension largely missing in the current debates on climate change and migration.

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Section: Macro-studies At the Country Levelmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…Macro-studies can be distinguished between those based on gravity-like (bilateral) migration equations, as in [10,80], and those exploiting panel data econometrics, as in [54,96].…”

Section: Macro-studies At the Country Levelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Macro-studies At the Country Levelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Macro-studies At the Country Levelmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate Change, Agriculture and Migration: A Survey

2018

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“…In so doing, it identi…es a crucial distinction of temperature increases on poor and middle-income countries and tests whether such distinctions and other additional implications are supported by the data. Finally the paper closer to our approach is Cai et al (2014). In this paper the authors analyze how yearly bilateral migration ‡ows depend on yearly temperatures at origin for a panel of 163 countries of origin into 42 OECD destinations for the period 1980-2010.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

The migration response to increasing temperatures

Cattaneo

Peri

2016

Journal of Development Economics

321

104

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SummaryClimate change, especially the warming trend experienced by several countries, could affect agricultural productivity. As a consequence, rural incomes will change, and with them the incentives for people to remain in rural areas. Using data from 116 countries between 1960 and 2000, we analyze the effect of differential warming trends across countries on the probability of either migrating out of the country or from rural to urban areas. We find that higher temperatures increased migration rates to urban areas and other countries in middle income economies. In poor countries, higher temperatures reduced the probability of migration to cities or to other countries, consistent with the presence of severe liquidity constraints. In middle-income countries, migration represents an important margin of adjustment to global warming, potentially contributing to structural change and even increasing income per worker. Such a mechanism, however, does not seem to work in poor economies. trends across countries on the probability of either migrating out of the country or from rural to urban areas. We …nd that higher temperatures increased migration rates to urban areas and other countries in middle income economies. In poor countries, higher temperatures reduced the probability of migration to cities or to other countries, consistent with the presence of severe liquidity constraints. In middle-income countries, migration represents an important margin of adjustment to global warming, potentially contributing to structural change and even increasing income per worker. Such a mechanism, however, does not seem to work in poor economies. Keywords

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Relationship among weather variation, agricultural production, and migration: A systematic methodological review

Sarker,

Alam,

Uddin

2024

Health Science Reports

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Background and AimsTwo main problems the globe currently facing are migration and weather variation. Weather change has a significant impact on the agricultural industry, which affects the majority of poor people. There is a dearth of adequate methodological documentation when examining the relationship between weather variation, agricultural output, and migration. We aimed to identify methodological reporting difficulties by reviewing the quantitative literature on weather‐related migration through agricultural channels.MethodsA systematic evaluation was conducted using papers published between January 2010 and June 2022, indexed in the SCOPUS, PUBMED, and Google Scholar databases. Using inclusion/exclusion criteria, we selected 22 original research articles out of 18,929 distinct articles for review, in accordance with the PRISMA guidelines. We extracted data from each study to understand how various concepts, research designs, and investigative techniques influence our understanding of migration patterns related to weather in the agricultural sector.ResultsThe majority (64%) of the study's data consisted of time series data. In 50% of the studies, secondary data were used. Additionally, 55% of these studies did not state the sample size. In 40% of the studies, model assumptions were fully adhered to, whereas in 36% of the studies, they were not followed at all. The majority of the articles used the Ordinary Least Squares technique, while about 41% applied the Two‐Stage Least Squares technique. Various tests were conducted across these studies, such as robustness checks (59.1%), endogeneity tests (31.8%), omitted variable bias tests (22.7%), sensitivity analyses (22.7%), and weak instrument tests (13.6%), to name a few. In the research we selected, the methodology section had various shortcomings and lacked organization. Furthermore, the justifications for deviations from model assumptions were unclear, potentially affecting the study outcomes.ConclusionThis study has important indications for researchers in studying climatic (weather) migration through agricultural channels besides for policymakers by giving a thorough review of the methods and techniques.

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Climate variability and international migration: The importance of the agricultural linkage

Cited by 248 publications

References 43 publications

Climate Change, Agriculture and Migration: A Survey

Climate Change, Agriculture and Migration: A Survey

The migration response to increasing temperatures

Relationship among weather variation, agricultural production, and migration: A systematic methodological review

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