CO₂ emission coupled power generation mix evolution with flexible energy resources

Abstract

Decarbonisation is the key to solving the environmental pollution caused by greenhouse gases, and the development pathways of power systems are the focus of the energy transition process. In the absence of direct energy development data, a CO2 emission model of regional power system based on a collaborative method is proposed. An estimable method of policy coordination is used to consider macro factors based on system dynamics and optimal allocation of high renewable permeable power system with a flexible resource combination is established to consider micro factors based on random production simulation. The development pathways of power systems under different national policy objectives are deduced through system dynamics. In the case study of the decarbonisation evolution pathways, two strategies are proposed to deduce the energy structure with high‐penetration renewable energy and flexible resources according to the drive of the CO2 emission target. The optimal development evolution pathways decisions for decarbonisation corresponding to policy targets are simulated and analysed under different scenarios.