Coastal Countercurrents Increase Propagule Pressure of an Aquatic Invasive Species to an Area Where Previous Introductions Failed

Encarnação, João; Krug, Lilian Anne; Teodósio, Maria Alexandra; Morais, Pedro

doi:10.1007/s12237-022-01092-8

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

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“…These authors compiled data from multiple databases/sources of published and unpublished records: Global Biodiversity Information System (GBIF, www.gbif.org), Ocean Biogeographic Information System (OBIS, www.obis.org), Biodiversity Information Serving Our Nation (BISON, https:// bison.usgs.gov), iNaturalist (www.inaturalist.org). Additional records made between 2019 and March 2022 were retrieved from GBIF, scientific literature (Encarnacão et al, 2021a;Chaouti et al, 2022;Encarnacão et al, 2022;Encarnacão et al, 2023), and unpublished records submitted to our citizen science campaign New Marine Species of the Algarve (NEMA -Novas Espećies Marinhas do Algarve, www.NEMAlgarve.com). The datasets were merged, and then the duplicates, doubtful identifications, and mismatched geographic coordinates (i.e., coordinates outside the marine environment) were removed.…”

Section: Species Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Atlantic blue crab Callinectes sapidus Rathbun, 1896 is native to the western Atlantic Ocean, from the coasts of Massachusetts (United States) to central Argentina (Mancinelli et al, 2021). In Europe, it has become one of the fastest-spreading marine invasive species (Mancinelli et al, 2017;Mancinelli et al, 2021;Fuentes et al, 2019;Encarnacão et al, 2021a;Encarnacão et al, 2022), the reason why it is on the list of the 100 worst invasive species in the Mediterranean Sea (Streftaris and Zenetos, 2006). The oldest records in Europe date from 1900 in the Bay of Biscay (Atlantic Ocean), 1935 in Greece (Mediterranean Sea), 1951 in the Baltic Sea, and 1967 in the Black Sea and Portugal (Atlantic Ocean) (Nehring, 2011;Encarnacão et al, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In Europe, it has become one of the fastest-spreading marine invasive species (Mancinelli et al, 2017;Mancinelli et al, 2021;Fuentes et al, 2019;Encarnacão et al, 2021a;Encarnacão et al, 2022), the reason why it is on the list of the 100 worst invasive species in the Mediterranean Sea (Streftaris and Zenetos, 2006). The oldest records in Europe date from 1900 in the Bay of Biscay (Atlantic Ocean), 1935 in Greece (Mediterranean Sea), 1951 in the Baltic Sea, and 1967 in the Black Sea and Portugal (Atlantic Ocean) (Nehring, 2011;Encarnacão et al, 2022). On the western coast of Portugal, the 15 scattered records reported between 1967 and 2019 suggest that the species had not established a viable population (Encarnacão et al, 2022), but this changed in 2016 after the first specimens were found in southern Portugal (Morais et al, 2019;Vasconcelos et al, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The oldest records in Europe date from 1900 in the Bay of Biscay (Atlantic Ocean), 1935 in Greece (Mediterranean Sea), 1951 in the Baltic Sea, and 1967 in the Black Sea and Portugal (Atlantic Ocean) (Nehring, 2011;Encarnacão et al, 2022). On the western coast of Portugal, the 15 scattered records reported between 1967 and 2019 suggest that the species had not established a viable population (Encarnacão et al, 2022), but this changed in 2016 after the first specimens were found in southern Portugal (Morais et al, 2019;Vasconcelos et al, 2019). Soon after, the Atlantic blue crab rapidly colonized the entire southern coast and adjacent estuarine ecosystems (Encarnacão et al, 2021a) and then expanded into the west coast to locations where previous introductions have failed (Encarnacão et al, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Aquatic species shows asymmetric distribution range shifts in native and non-native areas

et al. 2023

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IntroductionClimate change is reshaping the geographical distribution of species across the globe. In marine ecosystems, climate change creates novel challenges to an environment impacted by numerous anthropogenic stressors. Forecasting shifts in species distribution, including the expansion of non-indigenous species under climate change scenarios, is a management challenge for today’s world.MethodsWe applied Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) models to investigate the environmental factors modulating the occurrence and habitat preferences of the Atlantic blue crab Callinectes sapidus Rathbun, 1896 in native and non-native areas. With BART models, we also aimed to predict its current and future distributions under two climate change scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). BART models were performed using global occurrences of the Atlantic blue crab – recorded from 1830 to 2022 – and several environmental covariates (i.e., water temperature, salinity, current velocity, and rugosity). Model accuracy was assessed with the Area Under the Curve (AUC) and True Skill Statistics (TSS) criteria. Cross-validation experiments were made to balance accuracy prediction and uncertainty model prediction intervals.Results and discussionAUC and TSS values indicated that data validation was successful for the BART model. Water temperature was the most critical variable affecting the presence probability of the Atlantic blue crab. The BART model predicts asymmetric distribution range shifts on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean. The non-native populations will experience broader shifts in their distribution range than in the native range, and the RCP 8.5 scenario model outputs predict a wider distribution range by the end of the century. Overall, we anticipate significant ecological changes in native and non-native areas. The range expansion in native areas is often equivalent to the ecological shifts induced by invasive species, so lessons learned by ecologists and managers in non-native areas will provide actionable insights to managers in native areas.

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Section: Species Datamentioning

confidence: 99%