COIN 1.0 Formulation

Abstract

Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Executive SummaryThe Counterinsurgency (COIN) Model is intended to be a test bed for examining the important dynamics involved in the counterinsurgency environment. It is therefore designed to capture salient civilian population characteristics as well as Coalition and Insurgent "kinetic" and nonkinetic activities. The basis for this model is a civil violence model created by Joshua Epstein of the Brookings Institution. This peer-reviewed model captures the dynamics of spontaneous rebellions and does so with a striking paucity of model parameters. Epstein's model includes only two types of agents: civilians and cops. Civilians can be in one of three states: quiet, actively rebelling, or jailed. Civilians begin in a quiet state and actively rebel based upon their grievance toward an abstract central government and their assessment of the risk associated with rebelling. Civilians become jailed if cops can capture them while they are rebelling. The simplicity of the Epstein model, coupled with its comprehensive evaluation within the modeling community, makes it an ideal starting point for extending to create our COIN model.To extend Epstein's model for a counterinsurgency, it was necessary to add an additional type of agent, namely, dedicated foreign fighters. We also added agent behaviors, such as bomb making, killing, kidnapping, patrolling, and moving convoys. Also, due to the importance of a civilian populace in a counterinsurgency campaign, the civilians were greatly modified.