Cointegration in China's log import demand: Price endogeneity and structural change

Zhang, Han; Kuuluvainen, Jari; Lin, Ying; Gao, Penghui; Yang, Hongqiang

doi:10.1016/j.jfe.2017.03.003

Cited by 7 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…In the markets analysed in this study, sawlogs, pulpwood and manufactured products are not exchanged among regions, except a small proportion of sawlogs between Misiones and Corrientes. Therefore, log price fluctuations could be more related to micro markets than export-import relations (Zhang et al, 2017;Kanieski da Silva et al, 2019).…”

Section: Not Cointegratedmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pine Log Price Changes in South America: A Comparison of Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay Markets

Hildt

Bussoni

Olmos

et al. 2022

JFE

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We analysed the degree of price cointegration among pine log markets in northeast Argentina, Paraná State of Brazil, and Uruguay by examining price series over the period 2008-2020. We evaluated the cointegration of price series of the same product through the study regions. In the same way, we analysed the cointegration of price series of different products within the same zone. We found market cointegration for medium sawlogs and export logs, between Paraná and Uruguay and between Misiones and Uruguay. In addition, pairwise groups of sawlogs, pulpwood and woodchips were cointegrated in sawmill and pulp mill-markets. In regions without pulp mills, the prices of sawlogs and veneer logs of similar size and quality were cointegrated. These results reveal the existence of a dynamic of substitution. Usually, veneer logs are delivered to sawmills. However, in some situations, small sawlogs may be downgraded and sold to pulp mills.

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Section: Not Cointegratedmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pine Log Price Changes in South America: A Comparison of Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay Markets

Hildt

Bussoni

Olmos

et al. 2022

JFE

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“…Hasil studi Oesterling (1998) Pada studi ini, volume ekspor dan harga ekspor merupakan variabel endogen, sedangkan variabel penjelas lainnya menjadi variabel eksogen. Hal ini berpotensi terjadi hubungan kausalitas dua arah antara variabel harga dan volume ekspor sehingga model yang dibangun berpotensi memiliki masalah endogenitas (Zhang, Kuuluvainen, Lin, Gao, & Yang, 2017). Akibatnya, penggunaan estimator Ordinary Least Square (OLS) atau Generalized Least Square (GLS) akan bersifat bias dan tidak konsisten (Verbeek, 2017).…”

Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

Determinan Permintaan Ekspor Kepiting/Rajungan Olahan Indonesia Ke Amerika Serikat: Pendekatan Error Correction Model

Luhur¹,

Asnawi²,

Arthatiani³

et al. 2020

JKSEKP

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Kepiting/rajungan merupakan salah satu komoditas ekspor perikanan yang terus meningkat permintaannya. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis permintaan ekspor kepiting/rajungan olahan Indonesia ke Amerika Serikat sebagai pasar tujuan utama. Data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder, yaitu data harga ekspor kepiting/rajungan Indonesia ke Amerika Serikat, volume produksi kepiting/rajungan di dalam negeri, dan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar Amerika Serikat. Data tersebut diperoleh dari UN-Comtrade, Kementerian Kelautan dan Perikanan (KKP), dan Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS). Metode analisis data yang digunakan adalah ekonometrika dinamis dengan pendekatan Error Correction Model (ECM). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa variabel yang memiliki pengaruh terhadap permintaan ekspor kepiting/rajungan Indonesia ke Amerika Serikat pada jangka pendek adalah harga ekspor dan volume produksi di dalam negeri dengan nilai koefisien masing-masing sebesar -0.7818 dan 0.5270. Pada jangka panjang, variabel yang berpengaruh adalah harga ekspor kepiting/rajungan Indonesia ke Amerika Serikat dengan nilai koefisien sebesar - 0.7938. Upaya peningkatan volume ekspor kepiting/rajungan Indonesia ke Amerika Serikat dapat dilakukan dengan kebijakan melalui usaha nelayan dan perbaikan mekanisme rantai pasok (foodchains) yang berdampak menurunkan harga ekspor kepiting/rajungan Indonesia ke Amerika Serikat dan perbaikan kualitas produksi kepiting/rajungan di Indonesia. Selain itu, seiring dengan meningkatnya permintaan kepiting/rajungan di Amerika Serikat dapat memberikan peluang bagi Indonesia untuk meningkatkan ekspor kepiting/rajungan ke Amerika Serikat.Title: Determinants of Demand for Indonesian Export of Processed Crabs to the United States: An Error Correction Model ApproachCrab is one of fishery export commodity that has continuing increase in demand. This study aimed to analyze demand for Indonesian processed crab exports to the United States as the main destination market. Data used are secondary data, namely data on export price of Indonesian crabs to the United States, the volume of domestic crab production, and exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar. Data was obtained from UN-Comtrade, Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries (KKP), and Central Statistics Agency (BPS). Data were analyzed using dynamic econometrics method with the Error Correction Model (ECM) approach. Variables of the study are export price of Indonesian crab to the United States, production volume of crab in Indonesia, and exchange rate of rupiah against United States dollar. The results showed that export prices and domestic production volume are variables influencing demand for Indonesian crab exports to the United States in the short term with coefficient value of -0.7818 and 0.5270 respectively. In the long term, the influencing variables is domestic production volume with coefficient value of 0.7938. Export volume to the United States could be increased through policy on fishing effort and supply chain mechanism improvement that resulted in the decrease of export prices and improved quality of the crabs. In addition, the increasing number of crab demand in the United States provides opportunities for Indonesia to increase crab exports to the United States.

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“…A recent renewed interest in this type of approach can be observed by the number of very recent articles on wood products markets (Parajuli and Chang, 2015;Parajuli et al, 2016;Kristöfel et al, 2016;Daigneault et al, 2016;Kinnucan, 2016;Jochem et al, 2016;Sun and Niquidet, 2017;Parajuli and Zhang, 2017, among others). However, most of the studies are based on North American, Chinese (Wan et al, 2010;Zhang et al, 2015Zhang et al, , 2017 and Scandinavian data (Mutanen and Toppinen, 2005) and most papers about central Europe focus on energy wood (Kristöfel et al, 2016;Sun and Niquidet, 2017).…”

Section: Wood Tradersmentioning

confidence: 99%

A supply-demand modeling of the Swiss roundwood market: Actors responsiveness and CO2 implications

Borzykowski

2019

Forest Policy and Economics

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Given the importance of wood products in CO 2 sequestration, an increase in the use of local wood in construction may help reduce the sector's net emissions. However, given the low prices of wood, the Swiss forest industry is unwilling to produce more, despite the important potential of wood mobilization. Financial incentives may help meet the goals of both environmental and economic sustainability, if actors respond to price changes. To estimate demand and supply price-and cross-elasticities on the market for roundwood in Switzerland, we use a rich yearly time series data set covering the period 1949-2013. We consider both short term and long term relationships, thanks to a lagged adjustment model and correct for the price endogeneity using a supply-demand equations system estimated with the 3 Stage Least Squares approach. We nd that the demand for roundwood is elastic in the long and short run, while the supply is not. However, supply still responds positively to a price increase. In this context, a 10% increase in the price paid to suppliers would lead to a 5% increase in Swiss roundwood production. On the demand side, a 10% decrease in price paid by consumers would lead to a 18% increase in roundwood consumption. Such an increase in wood uses would lead to sequester 1% of Swiss CO 2 emissions each year.

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Cointegration in China's log import demand: Price endogeneity and structural change

Cited by 7 publications

References 48 publications

Pine Log Price Changes in South America: A Comparison of Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay Markets

Pine Log Price Changes in South America: A Comparison of Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay Markets

Determinan Permintaan Ekspor Kepiting/Rajungan Olahan Indonesia Ke Amerika Serikat: Pendekatan Error Correction Model

A supply-demand modeling of the Swiss roundwood market: Actors responsiveness and CO2 implications

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