Cold European winters: interplay between the NAO and the East Atlantic mode

Moore, G. W. K.; Renfrew, Ian A.

doi:10.1002/asl.356

Cited by 112 publications

(101 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…Importantly, our EA and SCA indices are of opposite sign to those presented in Moore et al (2013); the reader is referred to their figure 2 in contrast with our Figure 2). However, our EA and SCA indices are consistent with others (Wallace and Gutzler, 1981;Moore and Renfrew, 2012; see section S2 of the Supporting Information), and they also yield their expected climatic effects (CPC, 2012). This has important implications because the NAO dipole movements associated with NAO-EA and NAO-SCA combinations suggested by Moore et al (2013) appear to be reversed, and are the opposite of those inferred in this study.…”

Section: Teleconnection Indicessupporting

confidence: 89%

“…The spatial non-stationarity of the regional NAOclimate relationships described in section 3.2 can be rationalized on the basis of recent studies of SLP patterns (Moore and Renfrew, 2012) that demonstrated shifts in the NAO centres of actions relative to those used to define the classic station based NAO indices (Hurrell, 1995;Jones et al, 1997) linked to the coexisting states of the EA and the SCA.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This atmospheric pattern exhibits a well-defined SLP centre of action near 55 o N; 20-35 o W, is also prominent during winter (Barnston and Livezey, 1987), and is known to affect precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula (Rodriguez-Puebla et al, 1998). Moore and Renfrew (2012) derived an EA index (EAI) back to 1870 based on SLP data from Valentia Island (Ireland), but this index has also been defined in the literature as the second leading EOF of regional gridded SLP (Moore et al, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impacts of the EA and SCA patterns on the European twentieth century NAO–winter climate relationship

Comas-Bru

McDermott

2013

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

176

181

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Much of the twentieth century multidecadal variability in the relationship between North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and winter climate over the North Atlantic–European sector can be linked to the combined effects of the NAO and either the East Atlantic pattern (EA) or the Scandinavian pattern (SCA). Our study documents how different NAO–EA and NAO–SCA combinations influence winter climatic conditions (temperature and precipitation) as a consequence of NAO dipole migrations. Using teleconnectivity maps, we find that the zero‐correlated line of the NAO–winter‐climate relationship migrates southwards when the EA is in the opposite phase to the NAO, related to a southwestwards migration of the NAO dipole under these conditions. Similarly, a clockwise movement of the NAO–winter‐climate correlated areas occurs when the phase of the SCA is opposite to that of the NAO, reflecting a clockwise movement of the NAO dipole under these conditions. Our study provides new insights into the causes of spatial and temporal nonstationarity in the climate–NAO relationships, particularly with respect to winter precipitation. Furthermore, interannual variability in the north–south winter precipitation gradient in the UK appears to reflect the migration of the NAO dipole linked to linear combinations of the NAO and the EA. The study also has important implications for studies of the role of the NAO in modulating the wind energy resource of the UK and Ireland, as well as for the selection of locations for terrestrial proxy archive reconstruction of past states of the NAO.

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Section: Teleconnection Indicessupporting

confidence: 89%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impacts of the EA and SCA patterns on the European twentieth century NAO–winter climate relationship

Comas-Bru

McDermott

2013

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

176

181

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“…It is not clear the reason for this discrepancy. However, it may be related to lowfrequency variability in the location and depth of the Iceland Low and/or the Lofotes Low (Hilmer and Jung, 2000;Jahnke-Bornemann and Bruemmer, 2009;Moore et al, 2011;Moore and Renfrew, 2012). As can be seen from Figure 8, such changes can impact icing rates in the Greenland Sea.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A climatology of vessel icing for the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean

Moore

2012

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Vessel icing resulting from sea spray is a significant risk to maritime operations in the high latitudes. Despite the acknowledged risk that it imposes, there is limited climatological information that can be used for assessment and mitigation purposes. Here we use a parameterization of the icing rate that has been validated against observed cases of vessel icing and the Interim Reanalysis from the ECMWF (ERA-I) to develop the first climatology of the vessel icing for the wintertime subpolar North Atlantic. Three regions, the Labrador Sea, the Iceland Sea and the Greenland Sea, are examined in further detail. In all three regions, the icing rate and the frequency of occurrence of vessel icing increases towards the ice edge. The Labrador Sea is shown to have the highest risk of icing followed by the Greenland Sea and then the Iceland Sea. In particular, icing rates in excess of 4 cm h −1 are predicted to occur approximately 35%, 20% and 10% of the time during the winter in the Labrador, Greenland and Iceland Seas, respectively. On the monthly mean time scale, the severity of icing in all three regions is determined, to lowest order, by the location and depth of the Icelandic Low and its subsidiary feature, the Lofoten Low. In addition, heavy icing events in all three regions are shown to be associated with the passage of synoptic scale low-pressure systems that trigger cold air outbreaks.

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“…It is characterised by an anomaly in the north-eastern North Atlantic Ocean, between the NAO centres of action. Negative values mean a southward displacement of the NAO centres of action and lower temperatures (Moore and Renfrew 2012), positive values correspond to more zonal winds over Europe and expected higher temperatures. The third dominant mode is the Scandinavian pattern, also called the Eurasian (Wallace and Gutzler 1981) or blocking pattern (Hurrell and Deser 2009), which in its positive phase is characterised by a high-pressure anomaly over Scandinavia and a lowpressure anomaly over Greenland.…”

Section: Box 41 North Atlantic Oscillationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent Change—Atmosphere

Rutgersson

Jaagus

Schenk

et al. 2015

Regional Climate Studies

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This chapter describes observed changes in atmospheric conditions in the Baltic Sea drainage basin over the past 200-300 years. The Baltic Sea area is relatively unique with a dense observational network covering an extended time period. Data analysis covers an early period with sparse and relatively uncertain measurements, a period with well-developed synoptic stations, and a final period with 30+ years of satellite data and sounding systems. The atmospheric circulation in the European/Atlantic sector has an important role in the regional climate of the Baltic Sea basin, especially the North Atlantic Oscillation. Warming has been observed, particularly in spring, and has been stronger in the northern regions. There has been a northward shift in storm tracks, as well as increased cyclonic activity in recent decades and an increased persistence of weather types. There are no long-term trends in annual wind statistics since the nineteenth century, but much variation at the (multi-)decadal timescale. There are also no long-term trends in precipitation, but an indication of longer precipitation periods and possibly an increased risk of extreme precipitation events.

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Cold European winters: interplay between the NAO and the East Atlantic mode

Cited by 112 publications

References 41 publications

Impacts of the EA and SCA patterns on the European twentieth century NAO–winter climate relationship

Impacts of the EA and SCA patterns on the European twentieth century NAO–winter climate relationship

A climatology of vessel icing for the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean

Recent Change—Atmosphere

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