Collective Memory and Democratic Mobilization: Insights from Chile's Constitutional Revolution (2019-2023)

Abstract

This article investigates the lasting impact of historical-political tragedies on current political behavior, focusing on Chile’s Estallido Social protests (2019- 2020) and the Constituent Plebiscite (2020-2023). Using social media data to analyze political memory, the study suggests that protests serve as a strategic engagement tool in municipalities with vivid recollections of past violence from the Pinochet dictatorship. Least squares analyses show that municipalities with pre-1970 military bases had heightened protest activity but reduced constitutional voting involvement, without a clear political coalition bias. The 2SLS estimations link this to the long-term effects of political victimization during Pinochet’s regime and social media remembrance of the 1973 coup violence. The evidence suggests that while collective memories of political violence may encourage active protest participation, they can also weaken the relationship between voters and political elites, influencing voting behavior