Combined forecast process: Combining scenario analysis with the technological substitution model

Wang, Ming–Yeu; Lan, Wei-Ting

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2005.08.002

Cited by 42 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…Yoo and Moon [66] suggest that, instead of trying to choose the best single method, one should combine methods from different results, which would result in improving forecasts. This view is supported by Wang and Lan [58], who suggest a combined forecast process to obtain improved forecasts. Varho and Tapio [57] also suggest combining qualitative and quantitative techniques to obtain improved forecasts.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 78%

Improving Forecasts for Better Decision-Making

Siriram¹

2016

SAJIE

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 78%

Improving Forecasts for Better Decision-Making

Siriram¹

2016

SAJIE

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“…The research presented in this paper is an extension of recent research on simulation of bridging technology dynamics and is also based on work presented previously by the authors Pretorius et al, 2013). It also illustrates how system dynamics may be used as an alternative to analytical technology substitution models as discussed by, for example, for example Wang and Lan (2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 81%

“…Another issue for increased competitiveness in lasers namely quality control is addressed by Franz et al (2011) when they focus on the alternative use of metrology in discussing the implementation of solid-state lasers to increase the operational speed for materials processing with lasers. Wang and Lan (2007) in their research on market share of Fibre to the x technology in Taiwan focus on analytical technology substitution models in combination with scenario analysis. They also suggest how different technology forecast methods may be combined to improve technology forecasting.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A system dynamics approach to technology interaction: From asymptotic to cyclic behaviour

Pretorius

Benade

2015

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

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This paper is an extension and elaboration of previous research on the simulation of three competing technologies that interact. A modified version of the three-technology system is investigated, and some initial system dynamics results are reported illustrating the progression from asymptotic to cyclic behaviour. Technology is considered in this research as a result of innovation, a rate-dependent process that may include several non-linearities due to interaction with the environment and social context. Using bibliometrics as a research data source is an interesting way to trace technology growth patterns very effectively. In this research, the existence of cyclic behaviour in two real life technologies is illustrated using bibliometrics. In this paper, a technology system consisting of three interacting technologies is treated and modelled in a coupled manner where the interacting dynamics is described by the Lotka-Volterra system of differential equations. The effect of interaction between the technologies and the period of cyclic behaviour is illustrated parametrically. Furthermore, the possible uncertain diffusion as well as interaction effect for two of the technologies is also addressed in this research using a Monte Carlo multivariate simulation technique and a system dynamics approach. The research method is exploratory and case based.

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“…By means of forcing to consider possible structural changes, scenarios create a strong link to strategies through systematic management of uncertainty (Wang and Lan 2007). It is not the purpose of scenarios to generate accurate predictions or forecasts (Van der Heijden 1996).…”

Section: Scenario Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term outlook for wood construction in Europe

Hurmekoski¹

2016

Diss. For.

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The aim of the study is to examine the factors affecting the market potential of wood construction in Europe towards 2030. The study takes three complementary perspectives: Past trends and current structures, future trends and uncertainties and measures required to meet the long-term targets of the industries.The methodological framework builds on combining quantitative, descriptive and participative research approaches. By adopting methods and approaches from the field of foresight, the study aims to contribute also to the methodology development for long-term forest sector outlook studies.The trends and pressures in the operating environment of construction were found to primarily relate to the need for reducing the environmental impact of construction and improving the quality and productivity of construction. However, few of the trends would appear to have decisive impact on the diffusion of wood construction. That is, the positive drivers might not translate into improved competitive advantage for wood construction to the extent often expected, due to the lack of willingness or ability to pay for the attributes exceeding the requirements posed by the building regulations. Instead, the cultural and structural hindrances culminating to the fragmented structure and risk-averse characteristics of the construction and wood products industries seem to create significant inertia for the diffusion of wood construction.Based on scenario analysis, the outlook would appear to be dependent on the possible regulatory push for green building and on the possible changes in the strategic orientations of the industries. However, the empirical part indicated that the short-term strategy and policy measures suggested by experts are regarded either as unlikely or as unattractive by the industry stakeholders. The results therefore suggest that the diffusion of wood construction in Europe is likely to be a gradual process, subject to significant inertia, and restricted to a few niche sub-sectors and regions towards 2030.

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Combined forecast process: Combining scenario analysis with the technological substitution model

Cited by 42 publications

References 13 publications

Improving Forecasts for Better Decision-Making

Improving Forecasts for Better Decision-Making

A system dynamics approach to technology interaction: From asymptotic to cyclic behaviour

Long-term outlook for wood construction in Europe

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