Combining Remote Sensing and Crop Models to Assess the Sustainability of Stakeholder‐Driven Groundwater Management in the US High Plains Aquifer

Deines, Jillian M.; Kendall, A. D.; Butler, James J.; Basso, Bruno; Hyndman, D. W.

doi:10.1029/2020wr027756

Cited by 26 publications

(44 citation statements)

References 60 publications

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“…Since the top of our model domain represents the bottom of the root zone, we provided UZF with annual values of deep percolation from a linear model fit between simulated deep percolation from a calibrated crop model for the SD-6 area with and without conservation (Deines et al, 2021), and the sum of annual precipitation and applied irrigation depth following Scanlon et al (2006) (Figure 3b). Like pumping, annual deep percolation values were uniformly disaggregated to daily values over the 103-day pumping period.…”

Section: Model Construction and Input Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…During this period, irrigators exceeded their goal, reducing pumping by 31% on average and slowing water table decline rates while maintaining similar economic returns (Deines et al, 2019(Deines et al, , 2021Golden, 2018). This initial success led to an extension of the SD-6 LEMA for an additional five years, the 2018 formation of a much larger LEMA that encompasses most of the northwest Kansas portion of the High Plains aquifer (Groundwater Management District 4), and an additional 2021-initiated LEMA in west-central Kansas (Kansas Department of Agriculture, 2013, 2018) (Figure 1).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While initial results from the SD-6 LEMA are promising, it is not clear how the effectiveness of such conservation initiatives might change in the future as the hydrological system adjusts to the observed pumping reductions (Butler et al, 2020b;Deines et al, 2021;Foster et al, 2017). The change in aquifer water levels in response to pumping is a function of the difference between pumping and net inflow, which is defined as total inflows (i.e., recharge, lateral inflows) minus all non-pumping outflows (i.e., discharge to streams, vegetation, lateral outflows), and is mediated by hydrostratigraphic characteristics (Butler et al, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To address this knowledge gap, we seek to answer the question: How do lagged responses to pumping reductions impact the effectiveness of groundwater conservation practices over time? We hypothesize that when groundwater conservation initiatives, such as Kansas' LEMA program, are enacted, (i) the reduction in pumping causes an immediate change to the aquifer water balance, leading to a slowing of the water table decline rate (Figure 2a, light blue line); (ii) over time, inflows will diminish because the reduction in deep percolation (water that drains below the rooting zone) associated with more efficient irrigation (Deines et al, 2021) will eventually reduce recharge to the aquifer. Similarly, lateral inflow to the conservation area will diminish, as decreased pumping will reduce the hydraulic gradient driving water into the area.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Quantifying the impact of lagged hydrological responses on the effectiveness of groundwater conservation

Glose¹,

Zipper²,

Hyndman³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Many irrigated agricultural areas seek strategies to prolong the lifespan of their groundwater resources. However, it is unclear how lagged responses, such as reduced groundwater recharge caused by more efficient irrigation, may impact the ultimate effectiveness of these initiatives. Here, we use a variably saturated groundwater model to: 1) analyze aquifer responses to pumping reductions, 2) quantify time lags between reductions and water level responses, and 3) identify the physical controls on lagged responses. We explore a range of plausible model parameters for an area of the High Plains Aquifer (USA) where stakeholderdriven conservation has slowed groundwater depletion. We identify two types of lagged responses that reduce the long-term effectiveness of groundwater conservation. When vertical hydraulic conductivity (Kz) is > 3.5 x 10 -3 m d -1 , more efficient irrigation reduces groundwater recharge on sub-decadal timescales (recharge-dominated response). By contrast, when Kz is < 3.5 x 10 -3 m d -1 , changes in recharge are negligible, but pumping reductions alter the lateral flow between the groundwater conservation area and the surrounding regions over decadal timescales (lateral-flow-dominated response). For the modeled area, we found that a pumping reduction of 30% resulted in median usable lifetime extensions of 20 or 25 years, depending on the dominant lagged response mechanism (recharge-vs. lateral-flow-dominated). These estimates are far shorter than estimates made without accounting for the lagged responses. Our results indicate that conservation-based pumping reductions can extend aquifer lifespans, but lagged responses can create a sizable difference between the initial and long-term effectiveness of those conservation measures.

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Section: Model Construction and Input Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Quantifying the impact of lagged hydrological responses on the effectiveness of groundwater conservation

Glose¹,

Zipper²,

Hyndman³

et al. 2022

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Deines et al. (2021) combine a crop model and remote sensing to examine the agronomic and hydrologic impacts of an ongoing groundwater conservation effort utilizing pumping reductions in the High Plains aquifer in Kansas.…”

Section: Summary Of Papersmentioning

confidence: 99%

Introduction to Special Section: The Quest for Sustainability of Heavily Stressed Aquifers at Regional to Global Scales

Butler

Gómez‐Hernández

Perrone

et al. 2021

Water Resources Research

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Advancing remote sensing and machine learning‐driven frameworks for groundwater withdrawal estimation in Arizona: Linking land subsidence to groundwater withdrawals

Majumdar

Smith

Conway³

et al. 2022

Hydrological Processes

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Groundwater plays a crucial role in sustaining global food security but is being over‐exploited in many basins of the world. Despite its importance and finite availability, local‐scale monitoring of groundwater withdrawals required for sustainable water management practices is not carried out in most countries, including the United States. In this study, we combine publicly available datasets into a machine learning framework for estimating groundwater withdrawals over the state of Arizona. Here we include evapotranspiration, precipitation, crop coefficients, land use, annual discharge, well density, and watershed stress metrics for our predictions. We employ random forests to predict groundwater withdrawals from 2002 to 2020 at a 2 km spatial resolution using in situ groundwater withdrawal data available for Arizona Active Management Areas (AMA) and Irrigation Non‐Expansion Areas (INA) from 2002 to 2009 for training and 2010–2020 for validating the model respectively. The results show high training (R2≈0.9$$ {R}^2\approx 0.9 $$) and good testing (R2≈0.7$$ {R}^2\approx 0.7 $$) scores with normalized mean absolute error (NMAE) ≈ 0.62 and normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) ≈ 2.34 for the AMA/INA region. Using this method, we spatially extrapolate the existing groundwater withdrawal estimates to the entire state and observe the co‐occurrence of both groundwater withdrawals and land subsidence in South‐Central and Southern Arizona. Our model predicts groundwater withdrawals in regions where production wells are present on agricultural lands and subsidence is observed from Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), but withdrawals are not monitored. By performing a comparative analysis over these regions using the predicted groundwater withdrawals and InSAR‐based land subsidence estimates, we observe a varying degree of subsidence for similar volumes of withdrawals in different basins. The performance of our model on validation datasets and its favourable comparison with independent water use proxies such as InSAR demonstrate the effectiveness and extensibility of our combined remote sensing and machine learning‐based approach.

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Combining Remote Sensing and Crop Models to Assess the Sustainability of Stakeholder‐Driven Groundwater Management in the US High Plains Aquifer

Cited by 26 publications

References 60 publications

Quantifying the impact of lagged hydrological responses on the effectiveness of groundwater conservation

Quantifying the impact of lagged hydrological responses on the effectiveness of groundwater conservation

Introduction to Special Section: The Quest for Sustainability of Heavily Stressed Aquifers at Regional to Global Scales

Advancing remote sensing and machine learning‐driven frameworks for groundwater withdrawal estimation in Arizona: Linking land subsidence to groundwater withdrawals

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