Commodity Price and Inflation Dynamics: Evidence From Briics

Rizvi, Syed Aun R.; Sahminan, Sahminan

doi:10.21098/bemp.v23i4.1418

Cited by 12 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 74 publications

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“…In Saudi Arabia, there is a dynamic nexus between oil prices, the Saudi/US dollar exchange rate, inflation, and output growth rate [25]. In Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China, and South Africa, global commodity prices, particularly oil and energy prices, cause inflationary pressures, conversely in Russia where they cause deflationary pressures [26]. Comparatively, in the Organization of Oil Exporting Countries (OPEC), the oil price-inflation nexus is stronger compared to oil-importing countries, and the relationship tends to change over short periods [27,26].…”

Section: Commodity Prices (Cocoa Oil Gold Petrol Diesel) and Inflatio...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding Global Commodity Price Shocks on Exchange Rates and Inflation in Emerging Economies: ARDL Perspective

Boateng,

Karikari,

Fumey

et al. 2024

JEMT

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Aims: To analyze the changing relationship between commodity prices (cocoa, diesel, gold, oil, petrol) and macroeconomic factors (exchange rate and inflation) in Ghana and differentiate between long-term and short-term effects. Study Design: Quantitative Design with Time series analysis using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique. Methodology: The study utilized cointegration and Error Correction Model in econometric estimation. Time series data for commodity prices and macroeconomic factors were collected for the period 2003M01 to 2023M10. The ARDL technique was applied to differentiate between long-term and short-term effects of inflation and exchange rates. Results: The short-run and long-run results indicate a positive relationship between commodity prices and inflation and exchange rates. A 1% increase in diesel prices is associated with a 0.23% appreciation in Ghana's currency in the short run (p=0.019) and a 1.76% rise in inflation in the long run (p=0.012). Past inflation has a dominant influence on current inflation, with a 1 percentage point increase in the previous year's inflation leading to a 0.45 percentage point increase in the current inflation rate. Conclusion: Policymakers should prioritize stabilizing diesel prices, invest in storage facilities, promote alternative energy sources, strengthen domestic production and distribution of essential commodities, and adopt targeted monetary and fiscal policies to anchor inflationary expectations and address inflation inertia in Ghana.

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Section: Commodity Prices (Cocoa Oil Gold Petrol Diesel) and Inflatio...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding Global Commodity Price Shocks on Exchange Rates and Inflation in Emerging Economies: ARDL Perspective

Boateng,

Karikari,

Fumey

et al. 2024

JEMT

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…For most policy makers in developing nations in the current times the major objective is inflation targeting ( Rizvi and Sahminan, 2020 , Tuladhar, 2005 , Fracasso et al, 2003 ). Our hypothesis is that inflation represented by Consumer Price Index would react heterogeneously to different kinds of policy interventions and also on the nature of policy action.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 policy actions and inflation targeting in South Asia

Rizvi

Pathirage²

2023

Journal of Asian Economics

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“…Juhro and Iyke (2019) stated that prices of agricultural raw materials and consumption expenditures are important predictors of inflation. High commodity price volatility during the last decade should have substantially influenced economic activities in these economies (Rizvi and Sahminan 2020). The agricultural sector is the most vulnerable sector if it is affected by climate change, and 56% of MSMEs in Indonesia are engaged in the agricultural sector such as food, beverages, rubber, and other agricultural products.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of El Nino and La Nina Towards The Prices of Cabbage and Shallot in Indonesia

Fitriana

Siregar²,

Anggraeni³

2022

jma

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This study examines the impact of El Nino and La Nina on cabbage and shallot prices by applying the spatial correlation analysis method with 34 provinces from 2010 to 2020 to classify affected areas. The next method is a spatial panel with the main variables: rainfall as an indicator of El Nino and La Nina, commodity prices, spatial effects, and other supporting variables such as income, productivity, wages, and COVID-19 dummy. To get the output model, it is necessary to analyze the selection of the best model between the Structural Equation Model and the Spatial Autoregressive. The results of the study provide findings: (1) there are 16 provinces affected by El Nino and La Nina in Indonesia;(2) the best spatial panel model used is Spatial Autoregressive with the resulting La Nina has a large effect on increasing of cabbage and shallots prices because excess soil water content will cause crops and bulbs to rot easily. The spatial aspect has a significant influence, meaning that the price of cabbage and shallots in one area will affect the prices of the two commodities in other areas through distribution patterns. Policy implications of the impact of El Nino and La Nina in this study are classified into managerial, mitigation, and adaptation strategies including the policy of the Regional Inflation Control Team in the form of inter-regional cooperation.

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Commodity Price and Inflation Dynamics: Evidence From Briics

Cited by 12 publications

References 74 publications

Understanding Global Commodity Price Shocks on Exchange Rates and Inflation in Emerging Economies: ARDL Perspective

Understanding Global Commodity Price Shocks on Exchange Rates and Inflation in Emerging Economies: ARDL Perspective

COVID-19 policy actions and inflation targeting in South Asia

The Impact of El Nino and La Nina Towards The Prices of Cabbage and Shallot in Indonesia

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