Comparative Analysis of the Data on the Surface Currents and Wind Parameters Generated by Numerical Models on the Szczecin Lagoon Area

Abstract

This study focuses on the investigation of available surface currents and wind parameters for employing them in order to predict the survivor movement in the Szczecin Lagoon waters. For this purpose, the surface currents and wind parameters were generated by selected numerical models and the wind parameters were also measured with the telemetry devices. In this paper, the PM3D hydrodynamic model and the NEMS, ECMWF, GFS weather forecast models have been investigated. The measurements of the wind parameters, recorded at the Brama Torowa I and Trzebież stations, were also analyzed. As part of the research, an expert method was used to evaluate the surface currents parameters. In turn, the method based on comparing the forecasted wind parameters with the measured wind parameters was applied in order to assess uncertainties of these parameters. The comparative analyses of the data on the surface currents and wind parameters have been done and probabilistic models for uncertainties of these forecasted parameters have been formulated. Additionally, relations between the surface currents speeds and the wind speeds, in the case when their directions were consistent, have been also discovered. http://www.transnav.eu the International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation Volume 12 Number 4

Time Shift of Wind Influence on the Movement of Surface Water Masses in the Szczecin Lagoon

“…Analyses of wind parameter data in the southern Baltic can be found in Schiewer (2008), and Zhang et al (2011). The authors conducting the study have also previously published articles presenting the components of the study (Kijewska et al, 2017;Kasyk et al, 2018;2019a;2019b).…”