Comparative study of chaotic features in hourly wind speed using recurrence quantification analysis

Abstract

Due to the shortage in electricity supply in Nigeria, there is a need to improve the alternative power generation from wind energy by analysing the wind speed data available in some parts of the country, for a better understanding of its underlying dynamics for the purpose of good prediction and modelling. The wind speed data used in this study were collected over a period of two years by National Space Research and Development Agency (NASRDA) from five different stations in the tropics namely; Abuja (7050'02.09"N and 6004'29.97"E), Akungba (6059'05.40"N and 5035'52.23"E), Nsukka (6051'28.14"N and 7024'28.15"E), Port Harcourt (4047'05.41"N and 6059'30.62"E), and Yola (9017'33.58"N and 12023'26.69"E). In this paper, recurrence plot (RP) and recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) are applied to investigate a non-linear deterministic dynamical process and non-stationarity in hourly wind speed data from the study areas. Using RQA for each month of the two years, it is observed that wind speed data for the wet months exhibit higher chaoticity than that of the dry months for all the stations, due to strong and weak monsoonal effect during the wet and dry seasons respectively. The results show that recurrence techniques are able to identify areas and periods for which the harvest of wind energy for power generation is good (high predictability) and poor (low predictability) in the study areas. This work also validates the RQA measures (Lmax, DET and ENT) used and establishes that they are similar/related as they give similar results for the dynamical characterization of the wind speed data.

Chaotic Signatures and Global Solar Radiation model estimate over Nigeria, a Tropical region

“…Therefore, the similarities are based on the fact that their measurements are based on the diagonal lines of RP which are clearly stated in equations (22), (23) and (24).…”

Construction of a method for detecting arbitrary hazard pollutants in the atmospheric air based on the structural function of the current pollutant concentrations

“…However, this method turns out to be rather difficult to implement, and its accuracy depends essentially on a series of parameters that must be selected a priori. The identification of hazardous conditions of the polluted atmosphere in industrial cities based on the use of RP is considered in paper [22]. In this case, the calculation of RP is limited to considering only one of the coordinates of the multidimensional state AAP vector.…”

Development of the correlation method for operative detection of recurrent states

“…The calculation of the RP is limited to the usual metric (distance) in space of all actual numbers. Paper [8] describes the use of the RP method for a 5-dimensional vector of states of wind velocities in five districts of Nigeria. The results are limited to the consideration of linear space and Euclidean metric.…”