Comparison of Prognosis Methods for the Energy Consumption of Machines and Further Development with Regard to Increasing Data Availability

Abstract

An increasing number of companies establish energy management systems for continuous improvement in their energy efficiency and for this intensify monitoring their current energy consumption. These data can be used to gain further information about the production and to find potentials to increase its energy efficiency. In the procurement process of machinery and equipment or in the planning phase of production systems and building services, information about energy demand is rarely available, though it would be valuable for an early inclusion of energy efficiency in these processes. Therefore this paper discusses different forecast methods for energy consumption of machinery and evaluates in particular their universal applicability, effort and accuracy by analyzing them through the example of a packaging machine. In addition this paper proposes a further usage of energy-related data of machinery, which can be automatically acquired by monitoring systems for prognosticating their energy consumption as well as a possible distribution approach of this information. Therefore an own forecast method is presented, which shall process the energy-related data combined with information about dominant parameters of the product, the usage of the machine and the environmental conditions. For the distribution concept it was taken into account that the generated and shared information has to be abstracted in a way that no critical secrets of the company are revealed.