Comparison of techniques for eliciting views and judgements in decision‐making

Mukherjee, Nibedita; Zabala, Aiora; Hugé, Jean; Nyumba, Tobias Ochieng; Esmail, Blal Adem; Sutherland, William J.

doi:10.1111/2041-210x.12940

Cited by 149 publications

(104 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…FGD is commonly used as a tool to collect scientific data from individuals or communities about a specific topic [51,52] and is also employed in conservation sciences. Furthermore, FGD is mostly used for evaluation of management interventions or policies which are already in place [53][54][55]. FGD tool was selected for this study for the following reasons.…”

Section: Data Collectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Issues and Opportunities Associated with Trophy Hunting and Tourism in Khunjerab National Park, Northern Pakistan

Rashid

Shi

Rahim

et al. 2020

Animals

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Trophy hunting and mass tourism are the two major interventions designed to provide various socioeconomic and ecological benefits at the local and regional levels. However, these interventions have raised some serious concerns that need to be addressed. This study was conducted in Khunjerab National Park (KNP) with an aim to analyze comparatively the socioeconomic and ecological impacts of trophy hunting and mass tourism over the last three decades within the context of sustainability. Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) with key stakeholders and household interviews were conducted to collect data on trophy hunting and mass tourism, and on local attitudes towards these two interventions in and around KNP. The results revealed that 170 Ibex (Capra sibirica) and 12 Blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur) were hunted in the study area over the past three decades, and trophy hunting was not based on a sustainable harvest level. Trophy hunting on average generated USD 16,272 annual revenue, which was invested in community development. However, trophy hunting has greatly changed the attitudes of local residents towards wildlife: a positive attitude towards the wild ungulates and strongly negative attitude towards wild carnivores. In addition, trophy hunting has reduced the availability of ungulate prey species for Snow leopards (Panthera uncia), and consequently, Snow leopards have increased their predation on domestic livestock. This has, in turn, increased human–snow leopard conflict, as negative attitudes towards carnivores result in retaliatory killing of Snow leopards. Furthermore, according to official record data, the number of tourists to KNP has increased tremendously by 10,437.8%, from 1382 in 1999 to 145,633 in 2018. Mass tourism on average generated USD 33,904 annually and provided opportunities for locals to earn high incomes, but it caused damages to the environment and ecosystem in KNP through pollution generation and negative impacts on wildlife. Considering the limited benefits and significant problems created by trophy hunting and mass tourism, we suggest trophy hunting should be stopped and mass tourism should be shifted to ecotourism in and around KNP. Ecotourism could mitigate human–Snow leopard conflicts and help conserve the fragile ecosystem, while generating enough revenue incentives for the community to protect biodiversity and compensate for livestock depredation losses to Snow leopards. Our results may have implications for management of trophy hunting and mass tourism in other similar regions that deserve further investigation.

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Section: Data Collectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Issues and Opportunities Associated with Trophy Hunting and Tourism in Khunjerab National Park, Northern Pakistan

Rashid

Shi

Rahim

et al. 2020

Animals

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“…Once researchers decide to focus on a specific datasets that do not look trustworthy, they could opt for more in-depth and sophisticated approaches. Digit-based tests, in conjunction with other approaches such as specialized questioning techniques and structured methods for decision making (Nuno and St. John, 2015; Mukherjee et al, 2018), might become important tools for a more reliable and transparent conservation science.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A fish rots from the head down: how to use the leading digits of ecological data to detect their falsification

Cerri

2018

Preprint

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8Managing wildlife populations requires good data. Researchers and policy makers need 9 reliable population estimates and, in case of commercial or recreational harvesting, also 10 trustworthy information about the number of removed individuals. However, auditing 11 schemes are often weak and political or economic pressure could lead to data fabrication 12 or falsification. Time-series data and population models are crucial to detect anomalies, 13 but they are not always available nor feasible. Therefore, researchers need other tools 14 to identify suspicious patterns in ecological and environmental data, to prioritize their 15 controls. We showed how the Benford's law might be used to identify anomalies and 16 potential manipulation in ecological data, by testing for the goodness-of-fit of the lead-17 ing digits with the Benford's distribution. For this task, we inspected two datasets that 18 were found to be falsified, containing data about estimated large carnivore populations 19 in Romania and Soviet commercial whale catches in the Pacific Ocean. In both the two 20 datasets, the first and second digits numerical series deviated from the expected Ben-21 ford's distribution. In data about large carnivores, the first too digits, taken together, 22 also deviated from the expected Benford's distribution and were characterized by a high 23 Mean Absolute Deviation. In Soviet whale catches, while the single digits deviated from 24 the Benford's distribution and the Mean Absolute Deviation was high, the first two digits 25 were not anomalous. This controversy invites researchers to combine multiple measures 26 of nonconformity and to be cautious in analyzing mixtures of data. Testing the distribu-27 tion of the leading digits might be a very useful tool to inspect ecological datasets and 28 to detect potential falsifications, with great implications for policymakers and researchers 29 as well. For example, if policymakers revealed anomalies in harvesting data or popula-30 tion estimates, commercial or recreational harvesting could be suspended and controls 31 1 strengthened. On the other hand, revealing falsification in ecological research would be 32 crucial for evidence-based conservation, as well as for research evaluation.33 Introduction 34 Successful management of animal and plant populations requires informed decision-making. 35 Information about populations and their geographical distribution is crucial for design-36 ing effective networks of protected areas, identifying threats and integrating conservation 37 in policy making. Furthermore, as many animals and plants are traded, environmental 38 managers also need trustworthy information about the number and qualities of these indi-39 viduals which are removed from nature. During the last 20 years, conservation biology was 40 flooded with information. Digitalization enabled conservationists and agencies to store 41 and share their data (Hampton et al., 2013; Page et al., 2015). Advances in informatics 42 and the computational power of computers, allowed for an ...

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“…We used the expert-based, anonymous, iterative Delphi technique as it is well-suited to address complex issues where there is high divergence of opinion between different experts (Mukherjee et al, 2015). Compared to other qualitative techniques such as surveys, interviews or questionnaires, the Delphi technique is particularly useful in gathering consensus and exploring the rationale behind conflicting value positions (Mukherjee et al, 2018). This technique comprises two or more rounds of structured questionnaires, each followed by aggregation of responses and anonymous feedback to the participants (Mukherjee et al, 2015).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Unravelling the Scientific Debate on How to Address Wolf-Dog Hybridization in Europe

Donfrancesco

Ciucci

Salvatori³

et al. 2019

Front. Ecol. Evol.

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Anthropogenic hybridization is widely perceived as a threat to the conservation of biodiversity. Nevertheless, to date, relevant policy and management interventions are unresolved and highly convoluted. While this is due to the inherent complexity of the issue, we hereby hypothesize that a lack of agreement concerning management goals and approaches, within the scientific community, may explain the lack of social awareness Donfrancesco et al.Addressing Wolf-Dog Hybridization in Europe on this phenomenon, and the absence of effective pressure on decision-makers. By focusing on wolf x dog hybridization in Europe, we hereby (a) assess the state of the art of issues on wolf x dog hybridization within the scientific community, (b) assess the conceptual bases for different viewpoints, and (c) provide a conceptual framework aiming at reducing the disagreements. We adopted the Delphi technique, involving a three-round iterative survey addressed to a selected sample of experts who published at Web of Science listed journals, in the last 10 years on wolf x dog hybridization and related topics. Consensus was reached that admixed individuals should always be defined according to their genetic profile, and that a reference threshold for admixture (i.e., q-value in assignment tests) should be formally adopted for their identification. To mitigate hybridization, experts agreed on adopting preventive, proactive and, when concerning small and recovering wolf populations, reactive interventions. Overall, experts' consensus waned as the issues addressed became increasingly practical, including the adoption of lethal removal. We suggest three non-mutually exclusive explanations for this trend: (i) value-laden viewpoints increasingly emerge when addressing practical issues, and are particularly diverging between experts with different disciplinary backgrounds (e.g., ecologists, geneticists); (ii) some experts prefer avoiding the risk of potentially giving carte blanche to wolf opponents to (illegally) remove wolves, based on the wolf x dog hybridization issue; (iii) room for subjective interpretation and opinions result from the paucity of data on the effectiveness of different management interventions. These results have management implications and reveal gaps in the knowledge on a wide spectrum of issues related not only to the management of anthropogenic hybridization, but also to the role of ethical values and real-world management concerns in the scientific debate.

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Comparison of techniques for eliciting views and judgements in decision‐making

Cited by 149 publications

References 41 publications

Issues and Opportunities Associated with Trophy Hunting and Tourism in Khunjerab National Park, Northern Pakistan

Issues and Opportunities Associated with Trophy Hunting and Tourism in Khunjerab National Park, Northern Pakistan

A fish rots from the head down: how to use the leading digits of ecological data to detect their falsification

Unravelling the Scientific Debate on How to Address Wolf-Dog Hybridization in Europe

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