Comprehensive Representations of Subpixel Land Use and Cover Shares by Fusing Multiple Geospatial Datasets and Statistical Data with Machine-Learning Methods

Abstract

Land use and cover change (LUCC) is a key factor influencing global environmental and socioeconomic systems. Many long-term geospatial LUCC datasets have been developed at various scales during the recent decades owing to the availability of long-term satellite data, statistical data and computational techniques. However, most existing LUCC products cannot accurately reflect the spatiotemporal change patterns of LUCC at the regional scale in China. Based on these geospatial LUCC products, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), socioeconomic data and statistical data, we developed multiple procedures to represent both the spatial and temporal changes of the major LUC types by applying machine-learning, regular decision-tree and hierarchical assignment methods using northeastern China (NEC) as a case study. In this approach, each individual LUC type was developed in sequence under different schemes and methods. The accuracy evaluation using sampling plots indicated that our approach can accurately reflect the actual spatiotemporal patterns of LUC shares in NEC, with an overall accuracy of 82%, Kappa coefficient of 0.77 and regression coefficient of 0.82. Further comparisons with existing LUCC datasets and statistical data also indicated the accuracy of our approach and datasets. Our approach unfolded the mixed-pixel issue of LUC types and integrated the strengths of existing LUCC products through multiple fusion processes. The analysis based on our developed dataset indicated that forest, cropland and built-up land area increased by 17.11 × 104 km2, 15.19 × 104 km2 and 2.85 × 104 km2, respectively, during 1980–2020, while grassland, wetland, shrubland and bare land decreased by 26.06 × 104 km2, 4.24 × 104 km2, 3.97 × 104 km2 and 0.92 × 104 km2, respectively, in NEC. Our developed approach accurately reconstructed the shares and spatiotemporal patterns of all LUC types during 1980–2020 in NEC. This approach can be further applied to the entirety of China, and worldwide, and our products can provide accurate data supports for studying LUCC consequences and making effective land use policies.