Comprehensive Response of Rubber to Climate Change in Hainan, China

Abstract

The comprehensive response of rubber to climate change is influenced by many factors and each factor presents complex information. In this study, the input–output model of these influencing factors and rubber production disaster loss change were established using the data envelopment analysis method to analyze the comprehensive response of rubber to climate change in Hainan Island. Accordingly, the subjective factors could be avoided and reduced and the objectivity of evaluation could be improved. Climate influencing factors, sensitivity, and adaptability were used as input factors in the model, while rubber yield loss was used as the output factor. The efficiency of loss was used to simulate the comprehensive response of rubber to climate change. Results show that the high response of rubber to climate change appeared in Changjiang, Ledong, Wuzhishan, Qiongzhong, Wanning, and Qionghai. Meanwhile, the low response appeared in Wenchang, Lingao, Chengmai, Baisha, Dongfang, Sanya, and Lingshui. This research provides scientific support for the rubber plantation and the designation of countermeasures against the effects of climate change in Hainan Island.