Computational models of seismic effects taking into account the extent of the seismological information completeness

Abstract

Approaches to the models formation of seismic effects are proposed, taking into account the uncertainty and incompleteness extent of the initial seismological information. Earthquake-prone territories are divided into three types. The 1st degree uncertainty areas include territories where seismic effect parameters can be specified in the form of probabilistic distributions, the 2nd degree uncertainty areas include territories where effects parameters can be predicted at certain intervals. The 3rd uncertainty degree includes territories where all seismological information is expressed in terms of the intensities and repetitions given in the maps of the general seismic zoning of the Russian Federation territories (GSZ-93). The computational effects with varying extent of the seismological information uncertainty and the corresponding risk functions are determined.