Computer Modeling of Sectoral Economic Dynamics

Mashkova, Aleksandra; Savina, Olga A.; Mamatov, Aleksandr V.; Novikova, Ekaterina V.

doi:10.21869/2223-1560-2018-22-5-96-108

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 5 publications

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“…Modeling the processes of economic dynamics by industry is presented in [36], where the main modules of the model are public administration, production, consumption, employment, demography, education and the financial system. As the main methods in this study are used agent-based modeling, system dynamics, intersectoral balance models, elements of artificial intelligence and cognitive technologies.…”

Section: Theoretical Background For Study Of Mathematical and Simulation Models Of Industriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation of development of individual heavy industry sectors

Kislitsyn¹,

Gorodnichev²

2021

Bus. Inform.

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Nowadays, in the context of the coronavirus crisis, the issue of ensuring the sustainable development of heavy industries is acute. However, theoretical and analytical researches alone are not sufficient for this, and economic science needs to develop fundamentally new approaches to the study of the development of industrial sectors. This article is devoted to the creation and testing of a simulation model for the development of individual sectors of the economy. The object of research is the metallurgical industry, as well as related ore mining, mechanical engineering and production of finished metal products. The theoretical basis of the research is a systematic approach that combines the theory of industry markets, economic growth, industrial economics, system dynamics and mathematical economics. The main research methods used are system analysis, statistical analysis to identify trends in changes in the main economic indicators, econometric modeling to build production functions, as well as mathematical modeling of macroeconomic systems. As a result, a simulation model developed in system dynamics notation is proposed, which makes it possible to evaluate the development of individual industries taking into account various changes. This model is built on the basis of the three-sector model of the national economy, where separate adjacent industries connected by dynamic feedback loops are identified as structural elements. The paper details the structure of the simulation model based on first-order dynamic equations, balance equations and nonlinear production functions. The simulation model allowed us to predict a number of scenarios for the development of metallurgical industries, taking into account changes in the labor force and investment in fixed assets. The results of the work can be used for forming proposals on industrial policy, monitoring the condition and efficiency of individual industries.

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Section: Theoretical Background For Study Of Mathematical and Simulation Models Of Industriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation of development of individual heavy industry sectors

Kislitsyn¹,

Gorodnichev²

2021

Bus. Inform.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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Developing an Agent-Based Model for Intelligence Transformation of a Regional Industrial Complex

Shorikov,

Korovin,

Sirotin

2024

Lecture Notes in Information Systems and Organisation

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Methodology for regional industrial complex management: Architecture of an agent-based model

Shorikov,

Korovin,

Sirotin

2024

Upravlenets

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Industry is the backbone of the economy of developed countries and individual regions. To optimize management processes in such a complex and multi-level sector, specific economic-mathematical models and practical tools have to be developed. The paper discusses the optimal architecture of the regional industrial complex management model on a modern theoretical-methodological and instrumental (program) basis. The classical management theory, optimization theory and game theory constitute the methodology of this study. Among the research methods applied are agent-based and minimax approaches. We substantiate the use of agent-based modelling to simulate administering the regional industrial complex. The paper presents a three-tiered management architecture consisting of federal, regional and company level authorities (united by type of activity). For each level, control agents are identified and a set of indicators formed, which cover the structure of the phase vector, including its attributes, key parameters, control actions used, risks, a model of the parameters’ dynamics, and a model of the data possessed by the object. We build a hierarchical structure of administration and information relationships in the model and, based on the minimax approach, create an algorithm of agents’ efforts to select optimal control actions. The proposed architecture will allow forming a flexible toolkit for assessing industrial development scenarios and producing the best step-by-step management pattern of the regional industrial complex.

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Computer Modeling of Sectoral Economic Dynamics

Cited by 3 publications

References 5 publications

Simulation of development of individual heavy industry sectors

Simulation of development of individual heavy industry sectors

Developing an Agent-Based Model for Intelligence Transformation of a Regional Industrial Complex

Methodology for regional industrial complex management: Architecture of an agent-based model

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