Conceptualization of a Predictive Model for Analysis of the Health Outcomes of Dust Events in a Society with Köppen Climate Classification BW

Abstract

High concentrations of particulate matter (PM) in the air during Dust Events (DEs) are silently impacting the health of people without their awareness. It has been demonstrated that exposure to increased levels of PM can increase the susceptibility to respiratory, circulatory, mental and other diseases due to inflammation. In addition, living in a city with Köppen climate classification type BW (arid) and subsequently with frequent high levels of PM could have a negative impact on the population's health. There are very few studies available in the southwestern United States pertaining to the associations between exposure to atmospheric aerosol after DEs and hospitalizations. Therefore, we will do a conceptualization of a predictive model to analyze the health effects of DEs in a society with Köppen climate classification type BW. We will do a representation of a system in order to understand how the DEs, hospital admissions, elevated PM levels, socioeconomic status (SES), and demographic factors work together. Preliminary results indicate that there are more admissions in all primary diagnoses during a DE than in a regular day.

Particulate Matter in the American Southwest: Detection and Analysis of Dust Storms Using Surface Measurements and Ground-Based LIDAR

“…In the Western Hemisphere, the Chihuahuan Desert is one of the biggest sources of dust [22]. The Chihuahuan Dessert lands, lakes, and dry beds are the main sources of dust that is blown into the city of El Paso [3].…”

“…In the Western Hemisphere, the Chihuahuan Desert is one of the biggest sources of dust [22]. The Chihuahuan Dessert lands, lakes, and dry beds are the main sources of dust that is blown into the city of El Paso [3]. El Paso's climate is characterized by hot and dry summers with dry winters; because of this dry climate, El Paso shows a high frequency of dust events.…”

“…During the year, El Paso has about 306 sunny days, earning the name "Sun City" [12]. According to data from El Paso International Airport, dust events take place on average 15 times a year, with an average duration of 2 h. Dust events tend to take place between the months of December and May [3].…”

“…The threshold to separate high speeds from low wind speeds was 20 mph. This threshold value was selected since a dust event is defined as having PM 10 higher than 150 µg/m³ and wind gusts higher than 22 mph [3]. From Table 1 we can observe that, when there is a cold front, we can have almost the same number of cases with both low speed and high speeds.…”

“…Dust events are sporadic meteorological phenomena that carry dust and sand from hotspots and deposit them in remote areas due to high wind speeds [2]. A dust event is defined as an event that has PM 10 above 150 µg/m³ and wind gusts above 10 m/s (or about 22 mph) [3][4][5].…”